These things are tough! Understandable that some expressed reservations about this while other leading scientists supported the dose-sparing strategy. But holding off on declaring such disagreements to be “not following the science” might help. Dose sparing was not unprecedented.
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(Note: all the people telling me the UK situation is multi-causal and comparisons are difficult. Well, yeah, see above tweet. If the adaptive trial we advocated for had been launched in December, we’d have clearer answers now. The point remains: it was not an unscientific step).
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(Folks yes I know, weekend stats. I put the seven-day rolling average on screenshot for a reason.). Forget the edit button I want to put footnotes to my tweets
. On that note, back to the piece I’m actually writing.pic.twitter.com/SS6FB0gMwBShow this thread -
I thought the below wouldn’t need to be said after a whole year of explainers on herd immunity but please do note simultaneous vaccines vs lockdowns isn’t analytically that separable. (Sensible to accelerate both to get stronger exponential decay!) (Adding due to many comments.)https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1384203573068591112 …
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Twitter EDIT button: When the UK decided last December to delay boosters to speed up coverage, it faced denunciations that it wasn't "following the science"—not just that people could disagree with it, but that it was unscientific. Today, UK deaths are much lower. See thread
.pic.twitter.com/1KU07bTrOR
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End of conversation
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If people truly believed in science, they should have been glad that Boris was trying a delayed dose so we could learn what the result would be. Science never said that one dose doesn’t work, just that we don’t know. Now we know—and you still see people complaining eg in Canada
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A better question is how effective UK was in getting people doses and who got them as compared to the rest of EU. https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/16/covid-19-vaccinations-in-europe-which-countries-are-leading-the-way …
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In Canada they told seniors they “might” get the second dose in 16 weeks. Do you have science on that interval? Now it appears that they may not get that second dose at all.
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Trial would’ve been brilliant and we’d have had results by now. All we’ve got is uncontrolled Israel, UK, US data hard to untangle. I thank you and
@michaelmina_lab for encouraging this & confidence to argue it. Was vital to UK recovery. Thx also@TimHarford and@richardvadonThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Would be fair to also add that J&J hung their whole study approach on sparing and delaying second dose—indefinitely. They got approval for pretty much the same stuff that is AstraZeneca/Sputnik V with one dose because they figured the numbers are good enough that way!
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It is one of the great human rights crimes that this didn't happen. But give me a break. The UK data is definitive. It is simple math. As long as case reduction between doses is at least 50% then you do it, giving 2 doses to 75 plus once the whole cohort has one.
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