These things are tough! Understandable that some expressed reservations about this while other leading scientists supported the dose-sparing strategy. But holding off on declaring such disagreements to be “not following the science” might help. Dose sparing was not unprecedented.
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As disclosure: I co-advocated for a *trial* (preferrably an adaptive one) on dose sparing/delaying early December (with
@michaelmina_lab) because I think it’s best to bolster our decisions with data as best we can, and as soon as we can, even if we have to decide quickly.Show this thread -
(Note: all the people telling me the UK situation is multi-causal and comparisons are difficult. Well, yeah, see above tweet. If the adaptive trial we advocated for had been launched in December, we’d have clearer answers now. The point remains: it was not an unscientific step).
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(Folks yes I know, weekend stats. I put the seven-day rolling average on screenshot for a reason.). Forget the edit button I want to put footnotes to my tweets
. On that note, back to the piece I’m actually writing.pic.twitter.com/SS6FB0gMwBShow this thread -
I thought the below wouldn’t need to be said after a whole year of explainers on herd immunity but please do note simultaneous vaccines vs lockdowns isn’t analytically that separable. (Sensible to accelerate both to get stronger exponential decay!) (Adding due to many comments.)https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1384203573068591112 …
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Twitter EDIT button: When the UK decided last December to delay boosters to speed up coverage, it faced denunciations that it wasn't "following the science"—not just that people could disagree with it, but that it was unscientific. Today, UK deaths are much lower. See thread
.pic.twitter.com/1KU07bTrOR
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End of conversation
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Florida in the US only looks good because they fired their medical examiner and hid the deaths.
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No, but he has consistently done the wrong/quick thing, so Boris bucking consensus easily slotted into a pattern of him seizing the wrong quick fix. If someone without such an ugly record had done the same, they would have been easier to take seriously.
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Good overall point. Regarding Florida, in that case there was no pursuit of an intriguing (if disputed) plan B--as in the case of the UK. Florida may show the presence of some variables that we still don't have a complete handle on--seasonality? (India?)
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