These things are tough! Understandable that some expressed reservations about this while other leading scientists supported the dose-sparing strategy. But holding off on declaring such disagreements to be “not following the science” might help. Dose sparing was not unprecedented.
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People do not have to agree on dose-sparing as the best strategy and analysis of UK’s dramatic divergence from rest of Europe. But UK’s own scientific committee and a lot of leading scientists who advocated for it, nor those who disagreed, were “not following the science”.
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Yes, not really relevant in the US right now, but the discussion happened in December/January when thousands were dying per day. Anyway, “follow the science” or “science is clear” gets thrown around a lot—ignoring there were leading, highly-credentialed scientists on both sides.https://twitter.com/garpproton1/status/1384161258228776972 …
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I get this, and I also still think that reasonable people can disagree about dose-sparing as a strategy. But “Boris sucks” (or a version of it) is a bad heuristic for evaluating such decisions/topics, even if “Boris” [insert politician] may well suck. (See Florida in US).https://twitter.com/Gledster/status/1384159506473504780 …
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As disclosure: I co-advocated for a *trial* (preferrably an adaptive one) on dose sparing/delaying early December (with
@michaelmina_lab) because I think it’s best to bolster our decisions with data as best we can, and as soon as we can, even if we have to decide quickly.Show this thread -
(Note: all the people telling me the UK situation is multi-causal and comparisons are difficult. Well, yeah, see above tweet. If the adaptive trial we advocated for had been launched in December, we’d have clearer answers now. The point remains: it was not an unscientific step).
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(Folks yes I know, weekend stats. I put the seven-day rolling average on screenshot for a reason.). Forget the edit button I want to put footnotes to my tweets
. On that note, back to the piece I’m actually writing.pic.twitter.com/SS6FB0gMwBShow this thread -
I thought the below wouldn’t need to be said after a whole year of explainers on herd immunity but please do note simultaneous vaccines vs lockdowns isn’t analytically that separable. (Sensible to accelerate both to get stronger exponential decay!) (Adding due to many comments.)https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1384203573068591112 …
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Twitter EDIT button: When the UK decided last December to delay boosters to speed up coverage, it faced denunciations that it wasn't "following the science"—not just that people could disagree with it, but that it was unscientific. Today, UK deaths are much lower. See thread
.pic.twitter.com/1KU07bTrOR
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End of conversation
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Use common sense and don't let perfection stand in the way of close enough for government work.
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Just to be clear, the 1 death is our hospital deaths figure: the official all-settings death count today is 4. Not that it undermines your point of course, I fully agree
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