I agree we should better explain the dramatic risk reduction after vaccines. I've long been shouting from rooftops about the need to communicate better that they will greatly blunt transmission. On the other other hand, infectious risks are different category than car crashes.https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1383926074380210183 …
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The CDC guidelines have implicit assumptions about the answer to the question of post-vaccination transmission and they are actually fairly strong, but not been explicit enough to the public. The CDC making it explicit would help. Give people intuition/mechanisms, not just rules.
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when you crash with a car, you crash with every car that car has ever crashed with....
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I also think that with transmission and active vaccination going on it makes sense for people being more cautious at a level of risk they'd accept for something else B/C they think it will help lower the risk even faster
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The CDC will be overcautious, inevitably and understandably.
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Sure. But they are doing something a little different as well. They are making recommendations pretty clearly based on assumptions from the existing data, but not making their assumptions explicit, and thus prolonging confusion and adding to unnecessary polarization.
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