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zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Apr 2021

      It's long been hard to deny that there is aerosol transmission—the evidence has been overwhelming. I'm told that there are still authorities around the world denying this outside of so-called aerosol-generating procedures but let's take that as the baseline. But there's more.

      3 replies 49 retweets 374 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Apr 2021

      Epidemiological record is not supportive of droplets that move with gravity as the predominant method of transmission. If that were the case, there couldn't be this much difference between indoors and outdoors. Gravity is the same for both. But near field can also be aerosols.

      3 replies 67 retweets 398 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Apr 2021

      Same with clear importance of transmission without symptoms: aerosol transmission best explains this. Coughing & sneezing do expel particles that move with gravity—droplets—but the epi record clearly leans that the aerosol particles, which DO congregate near the person, are key.

      2 replies 49 retweets 297 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Apr 2021

      We argue that the so-called "droplet precautions" do, to a good degree, overlap with "airborne protections" (because aerosols are also nearer) which is fine, but it's important to get the mechanism right, because it's not a complete overlap, and the implications aren't the same.

      6 replies 49 retweets 328 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Apr 2021

      This is the geekiest bit that I love and cannot wait for the longer papers to be public: I'm persuaded that the traditional droplet/aerosol boundary has a major scientific error (wrong by about 20x) that has led to much misunderstandings and errors. Ask @jljcolorado about that!

      4 replies 36 retweets 392 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Apr 2021

      Fascinatingly, you search the scientific record high and low, but there really is little to no direct evidence for gravity-sprayed droplets being predominant mode of transmission for respiratory illnesses outside of coughing/sneezing. It's many... assumptions. Like a tradition.

      9 replies 53 retweets 398 likes
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    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Apr 2021

      If you put it together, it's true that distancing and masks are key, but when you have the right predominant mechanism—aerosols—there are differences. Indoor and outdoor policies can differ, for example, and distance is good but not enough indoors and depends on ventilation.

      4 replies 76 retweets 409 likes
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    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Apr 2021

      Airborne transmission unites three things crucial to recognize for effective COVID-19 mitigation: transmission without symptoms (thus aerosols), clusters driving the epidemic (also aerosols) and masks/ventilation indoors being key (hey, also aerosols). This framework is coherent.

      3 replies 110 retweets 451 likes
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    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Apr 2021

      We had a word limit.😖 But the power of a coherent, empirically strong framework is that it's easier to make the case even in a short paper especially since one can dispense of the epicycles taking up useless space and just point out how it all fits together, the epi, labs, etc.

      4 replies 17 retweets 248 likes
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    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Apr 2021

      There's good that can come out of this, including correcting our understanding or airborne transmission of other respiratory pathogens. See this letter in Science pointing out the correct aerosol/droplet boundary by @kprather88 @linseymarr et al. This is important for the future.pic.twitter.com/O8z0BqFvpE

      13 replies 122 retweets 456 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Apr 2021

      Anyway, it's been a true honor and pleasure to be included in this paper with my co-authors, @trishgreenhalgh @kprather88 @Rschooley @jljcolorado and @dfisman and, hey, I even liked the peer review process! The reviewers were sharp which is always good.😀https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00869-2/fulltext …

      4:29 PM - 15 Apr 2021
      • 41 Retweets
      • 366 Likes
      • Teoh Han Hui quallenchor M amcmovienight gem Paragon Science - Dr. Steve Kramer Randi Hewit Catsmother01 A Northern Soul #GTTO #JohnsonOut #FBPE #FBNHS
      7 replies 41 retweets 366 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Apr 2021

          I want to add something. Recognizing SARS-CoV-2 as *predominantly* airborne isn’t an obstacle. It helps identify effective mitigations& chokepoints—like Japan did, for example. Airborne doesn’t mean it necessarily spreads like measles—a common error. TB is airborne but lower R0.

          5 replies 51 retweets 359 likes
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        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Apr 2021

          “Predominantly airborne” doesn’t mean masks and distancing are useless. In fact, aerosol scientists were among the first to emphasize both. But correct theory of transmission gives both better explanations of the epidemiological record and better mitigations over a broader range.

          14 replies 94 retweets 471 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Don Milton

          Why this really matters. This isn’t quibbles at the margins. Its an incorrect paradigm being replaced. Some things overlap between the two, but not everything does and thus there will likely be many real changes going forward that affect *other* respiratory pathogens as well.https://twitter.com/Don_Milton/status/1382891848356741125 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Don Milton @Don_Milton
          Late 90s and early 2000s when we were showing that there were respiratory virus aerosols indoors, that ventilation reduced work absence, that indoor CO2 predicted risk of infection -- peer reviewers frequently said I was crazy. It's been a long time. Sad that it took a pandemic. https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1382842521286549508 …
          24 replies 111 retweets 499 likes
          Show this thread
        5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Apr 2021

          Another great paper, making the case for the predominance of airborne transmission and, crucially, focusing on practical recommendations for buildings with a realistic & nuanced discussion of the trade-offs. Three papers in key medical journals in a week! https://twitter.com/j_g_allen/status/1383073549380882438 …pic.twitter.com/cX8TGGrb07

          3 replies 61 retweets 185 likes
          Show this thread
        6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted

          Our @TheLancet paper is a work of synthesis in the service of a causal framework that best explains observed phenomenon over a year of intense data collection. I'd be interested to read a case for "it's predominantly and/or largely droplets" fits the data. https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1382827972239843330 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          This Tweet is unavailable.
          3 replies 25 retweets 144 likes
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        7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Apr 2021

          I don't mean the above as lip service. I don't see how the totality of evidence works well for an explanation that differs fundamentally, but I'd be super interested in reading that framework: not as an assumption in textbooks but as how it fits the full range observational data.

          3 replies 1 retweet 71 likes
          Show this thread
        8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ  🦠 🤧 🧬 🥼 🦟 🧻 🧙‍♂️

          I want to add two things that I see confused/claimed. First, see this thread and the paper itself where we explicitly discuss whether the predominance of close contact transmission implies gravity-driven droplet transmission is primary or even a lot.https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1383370706843410433 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ  🦠 🤧 🧬 🥼 🦟 🧻 🧙‍♂️Verified account @MackayIM
          The fact that most respiratory virus infections happen when people spend time close together, doesn't automatically imply ballistic droplets are the main route of transmission. I'd just like this said more clearly. There are those who can't grasp this or
          Show this thread
          1 reply 9 retweets 46 likes
          Show this thread
        9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Apr 2021

          This paper looks at totality of observed data and evidence from past year, and argues why aerosol-transmission as primary route can parsimoniously explain it all, while droplets as primary route contradicts key parts of the evidence. I'd love to read the opposite case if written.

          2 replies 6 retweets 67 likes
          Show this thread
        10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Apr 2021

          Second: I keep seeing claims that if it's aerosols, that means cloth or surgical masks are useless, and also what's called "droplet precautions" are useless. The aerosol experts have written so many papers on why that's not the case, and, in any case, that's not what we observe.

          10 replies 14 retweets 119 likes
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        11. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Apr 2021

          The paper, while word-limited, does go into both of these topics, but as with any shift like this, I agree the implications deserves more attention/explanation, and hopefully more soon, partly because part of the problem were some flawed assumptions in multiple directions.

          2 replies 3 retweets 52 likes
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        12. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Apr 2021

          And, this doesn't bind my co-authors, but I think our evidence-base is stronger for discriminating between droplets vs. aerosols, but not as much for fomites especially through resuspension etc. No, not washing groceries but.. I'd wipe down high-touch surfaces in crowded indoors.

          8 replies 10 retweets 124 likes
          Show this thread
        13. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Борис Баденов

          We briefly address this (word limit!😖) but it's not correct to assume that airborne transmission necessitates either a high R0 like measles or even a uniform transmission pattern. Tuberculosis is airborne but has lowish R0—but likely also overdispersion!https://twitter.com/bobby_dread/status/1383787373134184450 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Борис Баденов @BorisBadenov999
          Replying to @zeynep @jljcolorado
          What lesson, may I ask, stems from the Diamond Princess cruise ship then, relating to your findings? If indoor aerosol transmission is predominant, why didn’t everyone get it? T-cell immunity & co-morbidity factors? Thank you. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess … pic.twitter.com/nmDPZsBnTd
          4 replies 5 retweets 57 likes
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        14. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Linsey Marr

          Another good addition for people following this topic is Dr. @linseymarr, a true pioneer in this field (her latest in @bmj_latest, also out this week(!), was titled "Covid-19 has redefined airborne transmission").https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1382842521286549508 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Linsey MarrVerified account @linseymarr
          Yes, the "airborne route is likely to be dominant." https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1382825519171833859 …
          1 reply 13 retweets 66 likes
          Show this thread
        15. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Linsey Marr

          And just putting this thread here so people can get some context of how difficult it has been, for so long, to make progress.https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1383066390136041477 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Linsey MarrVerified account @linseymarr
          Replying to @zeynep @j_g_allen and 4 others
          YES! Welcome to my world for the past 13 years. So incredibly at odds with current scientific understanding! I have been going around saying that the medical textbooks are wrong, and people think I'm weird...which I am.
          2 replies 9 retweets 83 likes
          Show this thread
        16. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 Apr 2021

          Feels like an inflection point. Do read what the article linked by Dr. Karan argues: that short-range (close contact) transmission of respiratory infections is also PRIMARILY aerosols—goes against decades of claims of aerosols only/mostly being long-range. https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1384240928873844742 …pic.twitter.com/xvf2bQeES8

          8 replies 52 retweets 146 likes
          Show this thread
        17. End of conversation

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