I guess I'm old-fashioned but I tend to think that when your first instinct is to attack someone's credentials, you don't have a good argument, especially when it comes to complex multidisciplinary policy questions that it's good to have different perspectives on.https://twitter.com/celinegounder/status/1382299663269761024 …
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Replying to @NateSilver538
The whole issue here is that *nobody* is an expert on the psychology of vaccine confidence (though I'd trust you over anyone in public health), which is why we should default to making and communicating sane expected-value-based decisions rather than murdering people over voodoo.
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Replying to @davidshor @NateSilver538
nobody? really? there's a whole field. I do work in it. some people do all their work in it.
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confident man on the internet who hasn't done the reading is not a good look. neither is engaging in blind appeals to authority, of course. we can do better than this (though maybe not on this hellsite.)
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There is a field and a lot of study, but I do think nobody can confidently tell us how this one will really play out now. Whatever happened in the before times that we studied... was a really different context. That said, I do find pandemic era studies more relevant.
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Probably makes more sense to go from broad principles that we know apply (on trust/information etc), focus on minimizing trade-offs whenever possible, and prioritize saving lives since a lot of the rest can be tweaked along the way but rolling back exponentials is really uphill.
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Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan and
(I'm just admitting obvious limits here... )
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