Open access database and associated analyses on superspreading events, for COVID-19 and other diseases as well (including measles, chicken pox, etc). COVID-19 really is the "king of overdispersion" (k = 0.1).https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.11.21249622v1.full …
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What would be plausible mechanisms for that?
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Significant infectious bioaerosol generated from respiratory tract of asymptomatic/presymptomatic carriers (some people produce much more than others) together with environmental factors like poor ventilation, crowding, inconsistent mask use, and long exposure times?
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I think this is to be expected for multiple reasons. 1)
@DFisman mentioned that a superspreader is likely to give others a bigger innocculum. 2) homophily in general... People infected at superspreader event will be more physiologically like the spreader (age, health, etc) and... -
...more likely to attend future similar events where superspreading can happen (most notably crowded and indoor, but even smaller factors like climate will be the same)
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“we found support for the theory that superspreaders generate other superspreaders, even when controlling for number of secondary infections” I keep wondering about that possibility as it would be so striking in its implications if so (will read full paper carefully).