Also. Do note that I’m not even coming close to claiming listing all possible issues/confounders in a thread, but just saying there’s a reason to be wary of back-of-the-envelope calculations that are either comforting (herd immunity!) or alarming (more severe among the young!).https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1380149045365145600 …
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Yeah sorry about that! I should just keep writing long-form about all this (I will!).https://twitter.com/Goldammerfeder/status/1380239103464247297 …
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@threadreaderapp unroll pls -
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A very challenging and interesting thread. Thanks a lot for posting it. The issue reminds me a bit of the finding that simple rules of thumb often beat complex rules based on very detailed data in an uncertain world. Overfitting etc. http://www.ressources-actuarielles.net/EXT/ISFA/1226.nsf/0/faf36daf09085d81c1256ebc002a4033/$FILE/naaj0403_3.pdf …
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I worry about long Covid turning into the new Lyme disease.
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