Short thread. I keep seeing claims on how some places may have reached herd immunity & calculations on whether a variant is more virulent or disporportionately affects the young etc. These are not easy things to discern so let’s not do confident back-of-the-envelope calculations.
It raises the question but doesn’t answer. Good analysis is the ability to tell the difference rather than rigid rules like “correlation doesn’t imply causation” (except when it does) or “absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence” (except when it is because you are looking).
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Agreed! It doesn't answer, it just helps to formulate better hypothesis. And I'm with you that we should refrain from statements like those from Eric Ding. But following closely the situation in Brazil it does seem that there is one additional, different variable this time around
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Could be just more transmissibility plus hospital collapse. Don’t need much more than that, necessarily, to see what we’re tragically seeing there. May also be more severe—possible. But definitely too early, and “disporportionately severe on the young” seems like a giant stretch.
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. What’s odds last spring 2020? 1 in 3.
That is likely an effect of
(HT