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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      Short thread. I keep seeing claims on how some places may have reached herd immunity & calculations on whether a variant is more virulent or disporportionately affects the young etc. These are not easy things to discern so let’s not do confident back-of-the-envelope calculations.

      19 replies 178 retweets 776 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      True seroprevalence is not easy to figure out outside of true random sampling—rarely done. A lull in cases after a surge? Maybe, maybe not. (Not very likely, to be honest). Blood bank etc. sampling? Maybe. Confounding issues are thorny. Modeling? Very parameter dependent. Hard Q.

      8 replies 8 retweets 159 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      More younger people at the ICU compared to past? Could be an outbreak affecting them more because of network structure or behavior, vaccine/past immunity among elderly, ICU capacity change compared to past or even temp reporting blip in some countries, among many other things.

      6 replies 11 retweets 151 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      A variant rising in an area could be founder or stochastic effects (one version happened to catch in a superspreading event—this pathogen is very overdispersed) or actually outcompeting others through more transmissibility. That’s why it took time to establish B.1.1.7 was.

      2 replies 6 retweets 129 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      Similarly, previous (not that well-established) claims of high infection rate through models based on (maybe, maybe-not accurate) nonrandom seroprevalance are NOT, by themselves proof of widespread reinfection, or even that reinfected cases are severe or equally contagious etc.

      1 reply 5 retweets 107 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      I used to teach methods and stats for sociology students, and epidemiology examples were always very useful because they really are among the thorniest to try to untangle. And I believe harmful to overclaim, and not necessary to do so to make basic public health recommendations.

      2 replies 11 retweets 196 likes
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    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Eric Feigl-Ding

      For example, the Brazil situation is horrific and deserves immediate attention, but this thread below is an example of how not to draw conclusions about P1 and it’s differential effect on young people. (The situation is bad enough without making unsupported claims like this).https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1379995247812444162 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Eric Feigl-DingVerified account @DrEricDing
      Let this sink in—over **half of all intubated young adults** on ventilators now dies from #COVID19 in Brazil 🇧🇷. What’s odds last spring 2020? 1 in 3. That is likely an effect of #P1 variant—not just ICU capacity because March 2021 wasn’t included yet. 🧵 (HT @terrence_mccoy) pic.twitter.com/mHY5Vfqu0i
      Show this thread
      12 replies 53 retweets 272 likes
      Show this thread
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      Similarly, it’s likely that P1 is more transmissible than the wildtype, but what’s happening in Brazil is completely compatible with an unchecked epidemic causing hospital system collapse even without higher transmissibility let alone any—unproven, speculative—effect on severity.

      6 replies 12 retweets 220 likes
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    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Alexis C. Madrigal

      Yes, of course. There are *SO MANY* confounders like that. We saw admission criteria change even in the United States during surges, affecting a lot of hospital-level statistics. Making claims about characteristics of variants/surges is hard, and it’s important to be careful.https://twitter.com/alexismadrigal/status/1380152737204072448 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Alexis C. MadrigalVerified account @alexismadrigal
      Replying to @zeynep
      One more factor: changing admissions criteria. It could be that more very sick young people are being admitted because more vulnerable older people are not taking up beds.
      3 replies 5 retweets 173 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Pedro Burgos‏Verified account @Burgos 8 Apr 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      You are right in flagging those confounders. But as you said in a recent newsletter, "sometimes the plural of anecdote is, indeed, data". And here in Brazil (and now Canada) there are plenty of anecdotes about how younger people are arriving in hospitals in worse conditions.pic.twitter.com/6lGRw78IhC

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021
      Replying to @Burgos

      It raises the question but doesn’t answer. Good analysis is the ability to tell the difference rather than rigid rules like “correlation doesn’t imply causation” (except when it does) or “absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence” (except when it is because you are looking).

      7:20 AM - 8 Apr 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Pedro Burgos‏Verified account @Burgos 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Agreed! It doesn't answer, it just helps to formulate better hypothesis. And I'm with you that we should refrain from statements like those from Eric Ding. But following closely the situation in Brazil it does seem that there is one additional, different variable this time around

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @Burgos

          Could be just more transmissibility plus hospital collapse. Don’t need much more than that, necessarily, to see what we’re tragically seeing there. May also be more severe—possible. But definitely too early, and “disporportionately severe on the young” seems like a giant stretch.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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