A variant rising in an area could be founder or stochastic effects (one version happened to catch in a superspreading event—this pathogen is very overdispersed) or actually outcompeting others through more transmissibility. That’s why it took time to establish B.1.1.7 was.
-
-
We all would like more clarity—me too!—but some things aren’t easy to figure out, and for good reason. Even “paper published” (peer-reviewed or not!) isn’t the end of the story. There really is a process, and I think it works well when we let it, but it takes time and engagement.
Show this thread -
Anyway, h/t to the tweet/meme from
@jbakcoleman last night that inspired this thread.
https://twitter.com/jbakcoleman/status/1380024099083186178 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread -
Stellar comment in response to my last newsletter (about the unfathomable celebration of Florida's "Grim Reaper" attorney dude who was harassing people on beaches): "Nuance can feel like signal-weakening, so people over-signal to push the equilibrium." https://zeynep.substack.com/p/pandemic-as-metaphor/comments …pic.twitter.com/9hVO2woq4T
Show this thread -
Adding this as it's important even though it's sprinkled in the thread. Potential confounders make confident conclusions hard—but it's also hard to rule out direct causation. We can, and should, act against exponential threats even when facing uncertainty.https://twitter.com/rvenkayya/status/1380222793577594882 …
Show this thread -
Too often, a call for nuance and epistemic humility is conflated with inaction & decision paralysis, leading to the "signal overboost" noted above. Ideal world: perfectly possible to state limits of certainty while advocating for real action within the context of trade-offs.
Show this thread -
Seeing a lot of this in Long Covid discussions, too. We should be able to say that post-viral sequelae/Long Covid is real, important and too often neglected without ignoring baseline comparisons or turning it into something so ill-defined that it becomes easier to ignore/dismiss.
Show this thread -
Yeah sorry about that! I should just keep writing long-form about all this (I will!).https://twitter.com/Goldammerfeder/status/1380239103464247297 …
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
. What’s odds last spring 2020? 1 in 3.
That is likely an effect of
(HT