True seroprevalence is not easy to figure out outside of true random sampling—rarely done. A lull in cases after a surge? Maybe, maybe not. (Not very likely, to be honest). Blood bank etc. sampling? Maybe. Confounding issues are thorny. Modeling? Very parameter dependent. Hard Q.
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Of course! I am honestly not drawing firm conclusions on what may or may not be happening. But the idea that one can look at ICU/death rates from *March 2020* and compare them to 2021 numbers and draw conclusions like Dr. Feigl-Ding does? Not a good idea and, imo, not helpful.https://twitter.com/pkalina/status/1380155394480340993 …
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Anyway, things are bad enough in many places around the world. There is definitely more transmissibility with at least some of the variants—and those will soon become dominant in places with outbreaks—and maybe some other effects mixed in (a lot less certainty on that).
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We all would like more clarity—me too!—but some things aren’t easy to figure out, and for good reason. Even “paper published” (peer-reviewed or not!) isn’t the end of the story. There really is a process, and I think it works well when we let it, but it takes time and engagement.
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Anyway, h/t to the tweet/meme from
@jbakcoleman last night that inspired this thread.
https://twitter.com/jbakcoleman/status/1380024099083186178 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread -
Stellar comment in response to my last newsletter (about the unfathomable celebration of Florida's "Grim Reaper" attorney dude who was harassing people on beaches): "Nuance can feel like signal-weakening, so people over-signal to push the equilibrium." https://zeynep.substack.com/p/pandemic-as-metaphor/comments …pic.twitter.com/9hVO2woq4T
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Adding this as it's important even though it's sprinkled in the thread. Potential confounders make confident conclusions hard—but it's also hard to rule out direct causation. We can, and should, act against exponential threats even when facing uncertainty.https://twitter.com/rvenkayya/status/1380222793577594882 …
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Too often, a call for nuance and epistemic humility is conflated with inaction & decision paralysis, leading to the "signal overboost" noted above. Ideal world: perfectly possible to state limits of certainty while advocating for real action within the context of trade-offs.
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Seeing a lot of this in Long Covid discussions, too. We should be able to say that post-viral sequelae/Long Covid is real, important and too often neglected without ignoring baseline comparisons or turning it into something so ill-defined that it becomes easier to ignore/dismiss.
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Yeah sorry about that! I should just keep writing long-form about all this (I will!).https://twitter.com/Goldammerfeder/status/1380239103464247297 …
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Yes, good point. Also Uruguay does an excellent job of testing in contrast to Brazil, with deaths and hospitalizations disproportionate to confirmed case numbers
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Exactly. Their epidemic response has been much better (hence managed to keep things under control earlier, too) so it is a good comparison case for the murky situation. Their numbers are also more reliable. But they are also now having a real surge/outbreak.
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. What’s odds last spring 2020? 1 in 3.
That is likely an effect of
(HT