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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      Short thread. I keep seeing claims on how some places may have reached herd immunity & calculations on whether a variant is more virulent or disporportionately affects the young etc. These are not easy things to discern so let’s not do confident back-of-the-envelope calculations.

      19 replies 178 retweets 776 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      True seroprevalence is not easy to figure out outside of true random sampling—rarely done. A lull in cases after a surge? Maybe, maybe not. (Not very likely, to be honest). Blood bank etc. sampling? Maybe. Confounding issues are thorny. Modeling? Very parameter dependent. Hard Q.

      8 replies 8 retweets 159 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      More younger people at the ICU compared to past? Could be an outbreak affecting them more because of network structure or behavior, vaccine/past immunity among elderly, ICU capacity change compared to past or even temp reporting blip in some countries, among many other things.

      6:22 AM - 8 Apr 2021
      • 11 Retweets
      • 151 Likes
      • WylieDeeds Robert Weiss Crab doing everything wrong 🦀 Victor Sturm Gail Nevin FrauFoo mütend Maryam Eric SayWA? Chuck Eats
      6 replies 11 retweets 151 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          A variant rising in an area could be founder or stochastic effects (one version happened to catch in a superspreading event—this pathogen is very overdispersed) or actually outcompeting others through more transmissibility. That’s why it took time to establish B.1.1.7 was.

          2 replies 6 retweets 129 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          Similarly, previous (not that well-established) claims of high infection rate through models based on (maybe, maybe-not accurate) nonrandom seroprevalance are NOT, by themselves proof of widespread reinfection, or even that reinfected cases are severe or equally contagious etc.

          1 reply 5 retweets 107 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          I used to teach methods and stats for sociology students, and epidemiology examples were always very useful because they really are among the thorniest to try to untangle. And I believe harmful to overclaim, and not necessary to do so to make basic public health recommendations.

          2 replies 11 retweets 196 likes
          Show this thread
        5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Eric Feigl-Ding

          For example, the Brazil situation is horrific and deserves immediate attention, but this thread below is an example of how not to draw conclusions about P1 and it’s differential effect on young people. (The situation is bad enough without making unsupported claims like this).https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1379995247812444162 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Eric Feigl-DingVerified account @DrEricDing
          Let this sink in—over **half of all intubated young adults** on ventilators now dies from #COVID19 in Brazil 🇧🇷. What’s odds last spring 2020? 1 in 3. That is likely an effect of #P1 variant—not just ICU capacity because March 2021 wasn’t included yet. 🧵 (HT @terrence_mccoy) pic.twitter.com/mHY5Vfqu0i
          Show this thread
          12 replies 53 retweets 272 likes
          Show this thread
        6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          Similarly, it’s likely that P1 is more transmissible than the wildtype, but what’s happening in Brazil is completely compatible with an unchecked epidemic causing hospital system collapse even without higher transmissibility let alone any—unproven, speculative—effect on severity.

          6 replies 12 retweets 220 likes
          Show this thread
        7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Alexis C. Madrigal

          Yes, of course. There are *SO MANY* confounders like that. We saw admission criteria change even in the United States during surges, affecting a lot of hospital-level statistics. Making claims about characteristics of variants/surges is hard, and it’s important to be careful.https://twitter.com/alexismadrigal/status/1380152737204072448 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Alexis C. MadrigalVerified account @alexismadrigal
          Replying to @zeynep
          One more factor: changing admissions criteria. It could be that more very sick young people are being admitted because more vulnerable older people are not taking up beds.
          3 replies 5 retweets 173 likes
          Show this thread
        8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Dr. Angela Rasmussen

          Also. Do note that I’m not even coming close to claiming listing all possible issues/confounders in a thread, but just saying there’s a reason to be wary of back-of-the-envelope calculations that are either comforting (herd immunity!) or alarming (more severe among the young!).https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1380149045365145600 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Dr. Angela RasmussenVerified account @angie_rasmussen
          Replying to @zeynep
          Seroprevalence is also not the sole metric to assess herd immunity
          1 reply 5 retweets 143 likes
          Show this thread
        9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Zain Chagla

          And more. These things really are hard, and there is no contradiction between epistemic humility when we do not yet understand all the characteristics of a surge/variant, and advocating to do all we can to limit the suffering regardless.https://twitter.com/zchagla/status/1380147897988177920 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Zain ChaglaVerified account @zchagla
          Replying to @zeynep
          Yes - especially in LMIC or places where testing is all over the place Young people coming in droves to ICU in an area with questionable testing could be a) Increased virulence b) Baseline risk with a LOT of younger people infected and only seeing tip of the iceberg.
          1 reply 9 retweets 124 likes
          Show this thread
        10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          As a simple cautionary example on not being too confident about reinfections driving Brazil’s P1 surge, compare with Uruguay (no past surge, hence cannot be reinfections). Uruguay also has P1 at least rising. Maybe earlier blood-bank sero study is unrepresentative? Hard to know.pic.twitter.com/NMIDvIVKtr

          8 replies 13 retweets 108 likes
          Show this thread
        11. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Phil Kalina  😐 #GetVaccinated

          Of course! I am honestly not drawing firm conclusions on what may or may not be happening. But the idea that one can look at ICU/death rates from *March 2020* and compare them to 2021 numbers and draw conclusions like Dr. Feigl-Ding does? Not a good idea and, imo, not helpful.https://twitter.com/pkalina/status/1380155394480340993 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Phil Kalina  😐 #GetVaccinated @pkalina
          Replying to @zeynep
          Since last year, docs have learned to avoid putting patients on ventilators if possible. Thus patients on ventilators this year are likely to be sicker that such patients last year. Can’t this be an explanation for the rise in mortality? https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2767021 …
          4 replies 12 retweets 150 likes
          Show this thread
        12. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          Anyway, things are bad enough in many places around the world. There is definitely more transmissibility with at least some of the variants—and those will soon become dominant in places with outbreaks—and maybe some other effects mixed in (a lot less certainty on that).

          1 reply 4 retweets 83 likes
          Show this thread
        13. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          We all would like more clarity—me too!—but some things aren’t easy to figure out, and for good reason. Even “paper published” (peer-reviewed or not!) isn’t the end of the story. There really is a process, and I think it works well when we let it, but it takes time and engagement.

          4 replies 9 retweets 116 likes
          Show this thread
        14. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted

          Anyway, h/t to the tweet/meme from @jbakcoleman last night that inspired this thread. 😁 https://twitter.com/jbakcoleman/status/1380024099083186178 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          This Tweet is unavailable.
          2 replies 1 retweet 120 likes
          Show this thread
        15. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          Stellar comment in response to my last newsletter (about the unfathomable celebration of Florida's "Grim Reaper" attorney dude who was harassing people on beaches): "Nuance can feel like signal-weakening, so people over-signal to push the equilibrium." https://zeynep.substack.com/p/pandemic-as-metaphor/comments …pic.twitter.com/9hVO2woq4T

          7 replies 42 retweets 233 likes
          Show this thread
        16. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Rajeev Venkayya MD

          Adding this as it's important even though it's sprinkled in the thread. Potential confounders make confident conclusions hard—but it's also hard to rule out direct causation. We can, and should, act against exponential threats even when facing uncertainty.https://twitter.com/rvenkayya/status/1380222793577594882 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Rajeev Venkayya MDVerified account @rvenkayya
          Replying to @zeynep
          I fully agree with your points on confounders and epistemic humility, @zeynep, but we should also explain that confounders don't rule out the proposed association (if credible). I know you understand this, but it can muddy the waters in these debates. 1/
          1 reply 11 retweets 67 likes
          Show this thread
        17. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          Too often, a call for nuance and epistemic humility is conflated with inaction & decision paralysis, leading to the "signal overboost" noted above. Ideal world: perfectly possible to state limits of certainty while advocating for real action within the context of trade-offs.

          3 replies 23 retweets 173 likes
          Show this thread
        18. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          Seeing a lot of this in Long Covid discussions, too. We should be able to say that post-viral sequelae/Long Covid is real, important and too often neglected without ignoring baseline comparisons or turning it into something so ill-defined that it becomes easier to ignore/dismiss.

          4 replies 5 retweets 110 likes
          Show this thread
        19. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Goldammer

          Yeah sorry about that! I should just keep writing long-form about all this (I will!).https://twitter.com/Goldammerfeder/status/1380239103464247297 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Goldammer @Goldammerfeder
          Not really a short threat, but worth a read nonetheless. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1380146862607511555 …
          1 reply 1 retweet 36 likes
          Show this thread
        20. End of conversation

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