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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 4 Mar 2021

      Epidemic modelers are often justified in feeling unfairly maligned. But the problem is exacerbated when the modeling community is silent when crude modeling assumptions are being used make claims of mass reinfection hospitalizations+deaths in Manaus. Or on modeling like this:👇pic.twitter.com/U9UxPYYScv

      26 replies 82 retweets 349 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Mar 2021
      Replying to @WesPegden

      That yellow looks conceptually like the sharpie line Trump took to the hurricane trajectory. Is that like... from anything official?

      7 replies 1 retweet 49 likes
    3. wsbgnl‏ @wsbgnl 8 Apr 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      pic.twitter.com/4KFW5ZzBq6

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Calm Down Gorf‏ @Listen49698651 8 Apr 2021
      Replying to @wsbgnl @zeynep @WesPegden

      It's only about half as much as the model, but point taken. Why are Ontario and bordering MI behaving this way?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021
      Replying to @Listen49698651 @wsbgnl @WesPegden

      It’s nowhere near and that’s still inappropriate modeling. (I’m among the earliest writers warning about B.1.1.7 but wouldn’t make such predictions because it undermines confidence by projecting certainty to a stochastic process and misleading people.)

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @Listen49698651 and

      This is a reverse of projecting herd immunity, and end to restrictions, whenever there is a drop in cases. Same problem, same result. It becomes very hard to convince people of temporary measures when there’s an actual surge because we have little credibility on timing now.

      5:47 AM - 8 Apr 2021
      • 6 Likes
      • arm and hammer and dance Trish the Dish Kevin Stewart Juli798686 silenced112 Rémi Lemieux
      5 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Calm Down Gorf‏ @Listen49698651 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @wsbgnl @WesPegden

          I don't know what you're taking issue with here. The FT shows ~7K cases / day by early April. The model, ~15K. My comment was meant to indicate the rough congruity in shape, which I didn't expect.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Calm Down Gorf‏ @Listen49698651 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @Listen49698651 @zeynep and

          If you're looking for me to defend the way predictive modeling has been used in this pandemic, you're looking in the wrong place. The way you and Pegden have critiqued it is spot on.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @Listen49698651 @wsbgnl

          Right. Here's the plot superimposed with what happened. The area between the curves is large! The issue is not that with saying that cases might increase. If the actual case curve counts as a predictive "win" for this model, than nearly any outcome would have.pic.twitter.com/OAdVG4Uhjb

          2 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
        3. Calm Down Gorf‏ @Listen49698651 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @WesPegden @zeynep @wsbgnl

          From a policy makers perspective it's surely important to know if an increase will have the approximate trajectory shown, vs. near-linear growth. Despite it's flaws, to that extent, it could have been more wrong.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. silenced112‏ @silenced112 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @Listen49698651 and

          I dislike needing to point this out, but that's something public health officials should have thought about last year. It's difficult to believe them now about temporary measures. I certainly don't.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Trish the Dish‏ @TrishtheDish_7 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @silenced112 @zeynep and

          I agree. Give them an inch and they took a year of our lives. Osterholm is the only one who’s shown some remorse over this. I truly don’t understand why seasonality and herd immunity never ever ever play into these models. And then they sit around scratching their heads over TX

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. wsbgnl‏ @wsbgnl 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @Listen49698651 @WesPegden

          Several countries in Europe forecasted b117 waves and took preemptive measures, and it’s still breaking through. And I don’t know if Canada tightened or maintained measures. I don’t think your social science assuming people refuse restrictions is universal.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @wsbgnl @Listen49698651 @WesPegden

          I am for, and wrote among the earliest pieces, calling for preemptive measures. That is not the same as here's a line that's going up and up modeling. That's not credible. As for support: "it's temporary" has little credibility, but maybe other things could work. I don't know.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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