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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Monica Gandhi MD, MPH‏Verified account @MonicaGandhi9 6 Apr 2021

      as shown to us by this CDC map (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html …). So, not that simple and each state's cases probably reflective of their natural immunity (high in CA, TX after 3rd surge; low in MI as not as large surges) + vaccination ratepic.twitter.com/n2DuKonN2T

      2 replies 1 retweet 60 likes
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    2. Monica Gandhi MD, MPH‏Verified account @MonicaGandhi9 6 Apr 2021

      Okay 2) Increased virulence: The cleanest way to look at this in US is to look at states with highest prevalence of B117 and see if "hospitalization per case" rate has gone up. Meaning, if virus is more virulent, more cases will end up being hospitalized. Will call this ratio H/c

      4 replies 6 retweets 80 likes
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    3. Monica Gandhi MD, MPH‏Verified account @MonicaGandhi9 6 Apr 2021

      Let's look at H/c ratio for some of our states with highest prevalence of variants per CDC (FL, MI, MN, CO) - we don't want to be here all night so won't even bother with CA with such low cases/hospitalizations; effect of variants here is pretty obvious (eg. nil). Ok, here goes

      1 reply 4 retweets 64 likes
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    4. Monica Gandhi MD, MPH‏Verified account @MonicaGandhi9 6 Apr 2021

      MN (again, your H/c should go up if variants more deadly as variants spread from 2/25/21-4/6/21) 4/6/21: H/c 4.5% (Last 7 Days Cases 11,209; Last 7 Day Hospitalizations, 505) 4/1/21: H/c 3.9% (cases 10,988; Last 7 Day Hospitalizations 430) 3/25/21 H/c 4.6% (cases 8579; H 390)

      2 replies 3 retweets 47 likes
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    5. Monica Gandhi MD, MPH‏Verified account @MonicaGandhi9 6 Apr 2021

      3/18/21 H/c 4.4% (cases 6949; H 304) 3/11/21 H/c 3.9% (cases 6579; H 257) 3/4/21 H/c 4.8% (cases 5589; H 269) 2/25/21 H/c 4.9% (cases 5546; H 273) GET THE PICTURE? Hospitalizations/case not going up. Let's do few more states with high variant prevalence

      2 replies 3 retweets 49 likes
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    6. Monica Gandhi MD, MPH‏Verified account @MonicaGandhi9 6 Apr 2021

      MICHIGAN: 4/6/21 H/c 6.6% (cases 45192; H 3000) 4/1/21 H/c 6.0% (cases 39801; H 2379) 3/25/21 H/c 6.3% (cases 26,271; H 1653) 3/18/21 H/c 5.9% (cases 17,707; H 1039) 3/11/21 H/c 7.3% (cases 11810; H 859) 3/4/21 H/c 7.4% (cases 9492; H 706) 2/25/21 H/c 7.8% (cases 8,498; H 661)

      2 replies 2 retweets 38 likes
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    7. Monica Gandhi MD, MPH‏Verified account @MonicaGandhi9 6 Apr 2021

      Same true of FL (3,191 B117 cases sequenced) where hospitalization/case ratio has reduced from 8% on 2/25/21 to 6% this week. Same true of CO (894 B117 cases sequenced) where hospitalization/case ratio has decreased from 4% on 2/25/21 to 3% last week. Increased virulence not seen

      3 replies 6 retweets 63 likes
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    8. Monica Gandhi MD, MPH‏Verified account @MonicaGandhi9 6 Apr 2021

      3) And final concern- variants (B117) will evade our vaccines? Hope I addressed this yesterday (thread). So, here is a thread on why B117 or variants are not deterring progress with these amazing vaccines & should not signal lockdowns/school closureshttps://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1379294379391676417?refresh=1617773784 …

      6 replies 8 retweets 99 likes
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    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Apr 2021
      Replying to @MonicaGandhi9

      With all due respect, I think you are ignoring a significant amount of existing work/papers on B.1.1.7 on its transmissibility and its impact on disease severity, and understating how hard it was for UK and Israel to get it under control—a testament to the two former points.

      2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
    10. Ed Brown‏ @efb_1 7 Apr 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @MonicaGandhi9

      It is possible that much of the existing work/papers on B.1.1.7 are not correct. It is a hard thing to measure. But vaccinating all those who want it is clearly a useful step in any event. So we should continue that, and hope for the best, I guess.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Apr 2021
      Replying to @efb_1 @MonicaGandhi9

      No, there is a quite strong and growing evidence base, and we are way beyond needing to use the limited and early data from the United States like in this thread (where we don't have good genomic surveillance anyway) in my opinion.

      7:53 AM - 7 Apr 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Crab doing everything wrong 🦀
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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