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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Apr 2021

      There was recently a claim (in Nature!) that increased vaccination may not help us reach herd immunity because "people will increase their interactions". Real life data says: as vaccination rates increased, rates of infection among the unvaccinated under 16-year-olds *decreased.*pic.twitter.com/0xGuLApxrl

      22 replies 153 retweets 749 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Apr 2021

      I don't why it's so easy to believe this idea (with us since seat belts, at least) that the benefits of something that works to greatly increase safety will be undone by people becoming so reckless that it overwhelms the safety benefit, but it seems so pervasive.

      24 replies 42 retweets 419 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Apr 2021

      Anyway, when many people in a community are vaccinated, those who cannot yet be vaccinated (like young people for whom we don't yet have vaccines, but will soon) are less likely to be infected. It's exactly what one should expect, but nice to see a paper. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.26.21254394v1 …pic.twitter.com/sD5kThfQmU

      4 replies 49 retweets 228 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Apr 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted (((Rob Mickey)))

      Indeed. But as decades of research reveals, well, safety devices increase safety, and most things kinda work in straightforward ways. Poverty is alleviated by—gasp—money, health is improved by effective vaccines, seatbelts make cars safer, etc.https://twitter.com/robmickey/status/1379560718744305669 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      (((Rob Mickey))) @robmickey
      Many people--especially economists--fall in love with critiques of policy that emphasize perverse, ironic outcomes. These critiques are excellent for highlighting their cleverness, and also for reinforcing their opposition to state action. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1379559800963481600 …
      7 replies 45 retweets 279 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Apr 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Linch

      Yes. I am not denying that a second order effect could, sometimes, overwhelm a first order effect, but it's a bit reach and an epistemic move one should approach with great suspicion unless data is strong and mechanism actually realistic etc.https://twitter.com/LinchZhang/status/1379561073234178051 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Linch @LinchZhang
      The broad epistemic move here (that I criticized elsewhere) is having overly high initial credence in 2nd order effects over 1st order effects, 3rd order effects over 2nd order, etc, or even more broadly an issue with believing in effects that are "too clever. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1379559800963481600 …
      3:32 PM - 6 Apr 2021
      • 5 Retweets
      • 131 Likes
      • pink mcdonald's Luigi Moccia ☀️🦅Daya G.✨🐢 Gail Nevin Trish the Dish April Hunt FVM Eli Sennesh Sora Hikari (he/they)
      7 replies 5 retweets 131 likes
        1. jorbs‏ @JoINrbs 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          for my entire life i've been told (by some people) that taxing the rich would cause the poor to have less money xD

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        2. Ryan Horath‏ @therealrthorat 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          You should not wait for evidence for 2nd order effects. That's too late. The key is assessing the likelihood of each problem. Vaccines have high effectiveness, so the likelihood of 2nd order effects dominating is very small and quickly mathematically unlikely/impossible...

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Ryan Horath‏ @therealrthorat 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @therealrthorat @zeynep

          If vaccines are close to 100% effective and you vaccinate 50% of people, the number of people left are barely enough to make a substantial impact, given than many will already be immune and only a portion of those non-immune will get infected.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Andrew Starr‏ @ajsta 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Most of this seems to link back to the widely cited papers by Wilde on "risks homeostasis" (reduce risk in facet of life, increase in another). Is there a problem with the original papers or have the ideas just not held up over time (eg. Your contribution on masking).

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        2. gfodor‏ @gfodor 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          This hypothesis has a lot more validity when it comes to masks, imo, because many people are wearing poor-quality masks and then acting as if they have lots protection. Super strange this hypothesis is being raised now with vaccines, when masks are the bigger possible affector.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. gfodor‏ @gfodor 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @gfodor @zeynep

          (in other words, the vaccine works, so there's a big hill to climb for behavior, but if cloth or other crappy, leaky masks don't actually work vs n95s, the hill is a lot less steep.)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Gunnar Blix‏ @gunnarblix 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          There have been some horrific fatal injuries to skiers and snowboarders who think helmets will protect them from everything and do very reckless things, but, still, yes — they work to prevent fatalities and serious injuries overall:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3989528/ …

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        1. Robb Willer‏ @RobbWiller 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          See also the Laffer Curve

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        1. Chance Gardener‏ @ChanceBGardener 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          This story isn’t one of the priority of first order effects or the unlikelihood of second order effects. It’s suggestive that most transmission to this age group isn’t from within this age group. Which was suspected.

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