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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Apr 2021

      There was recently a claim (in Nature!) that increased vaccination may not help us reach herd immunity because "people will increase their interactions". Real life data says: as vaccination rates increased, rates of infection among the unvaccinated under 16-year-olds *decreased.*pic.twitter.com/0xGuLApxrl

      22 replies 153 retweets 749 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Apr 2021

      I don't why it's so easy to believe this idea (with us since seat belts, at least) that the benefits of something that works to greatly increase safety will be undone by people becoming so reckless that it overwhelms the safety benefit, but it seems so pervasive.

      24 replies 42 retweets 419 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Apr 2021

      Anyway, when many people in a community are vaccinated, those who cannot yet be vaccinated (like young people for whom we don't yet have vaccines, but will soon) are less likely to be infected. It's exactly what one should expect, but nice to see a paper. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.26.21254394v1 …pic.twitter.com/sD5kThfQmU

      4 replies 49 retweets 228 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Apr 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted (((Rob Mickey)))

      Indeed. But as decades of research reveals, well, safety devices increase safety, and most things kinda work in straightforward ways. Poverty is alleviated by—gasp—money, health is improved by effective vaccines, seatbelts make cars safer, etc.https://twitter.com/robmickey/status/1379560718744305669 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      (((Rob Mickey))) @robmickey
      Many people--especially economists--fall in love with critiques of policy that emphasize perverse, ironic outcomes. These critiques are excellent for highlighting their cleverness, and also for reinforcing their opposition to state action. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1379559800963481600 …
      3:28 PM - 6 Apr 2021
      • 45 Retweets
      • 279 Likes
      • Laura Katherine pink mcdonald's Luigi Moccia ☀️🦅Daya G.✨🐢 Ann Kuhns Jessica Gail Nevin Tar Heels77 Eli Sennesh
      7 replies 45 retweets 279 likes
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Apr 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Linch

          Yes. I am not denying that a second order effect could, sometimes, overwhelm a first order effect, but it's a bit reach and an epistemic move one should approach with great suspicion unless data is strong and mechanism actually realistic etc.https://twitter.com/LinchZhang/status/1379561073234178051 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Linch @LinchZhang
          The broad epistemic move here (that I criticized elsewhere) is having overly high initial credence in 2nd order effects over 1st order effects, 3rd order effects over 2nd order, etc, or even more broadly an issue with believing in effects that are "too clever. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1379559800963481600 …
          7 replies 5 retweets 131 likes
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        1. arm and hammer and dance‏ @adambravomusic 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          As my dad always used to tell me, "when people start talking to you about side effects, don't forget the main effects!"

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        1. Ryan Hübert  🏳️‍🌈‏ @ryan_hubert 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @baobaofzhang

          Yes! But also, the QT is a little unfair to economists, who often advocate simpler policies (cash transfers, carbon taxes, build housing, etc) than what emerges from political processes.

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        1. Sarah Lawrence Scott‏ @SLC_Scott 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          When I teach chemistry, students have a similar conceptual issue with Le Chatelier's principle. They tend to think that because systems PARTIALLY compensate for imposed changes, that the net result is the opposite of the imposed change. (Spoiler: it's not.)

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        1. Echo Channel‏ @channel_echo 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          I’m totally with you on vaccines and the herd immunity, but didn’t annual car crash deaths per capita stay pretty flat in the US between early 1990s to late 2000s, until the Great Recession, despite the safety improvements in cars and more stringent DUI enforcements?

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