Yep! I don't like the "I'll that bet" things, because it seems like a stunt, but I'd take a five figure bet (for a global health charity of anyone's choice) against the prediction variants making vaccines "ineffective" (circumventing totality of immune response) in the next year.
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Same. And even if that were to somehow happen, defying *checks notes* the entire history of vaccines, we can easily make boosters. While there is a bit of a problem with minimizing variant concerns as well, the idea that this would happen before we could respond is not realistic.
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Replying to @angie_rasmussen @zeynep and
I've been trying to convey the concept of correlates of protection, which we haven't defined yet for these vaccines. Because antibody neutralization is generally important, people treat it as if it's an established correlate of protection. It's not. But hard to explain.
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Replying to @angie_rasmussen @notdred and
I haven't watched the segment & maybe the discussion was more nuanced, but I'd really hope that we're not "a little more" mutation away from losing effective vaccines and having vaccines that "no longer work"? This claim is not uncommon on traditional media as far as I can tell.pic.twitter.com/pdcLhAmFpy
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Replying to @zeynep @angie_rasmussen and
Disappointing. It’s good to promote continued NPI while we give vaccination a chance to get this under control, but this seems overly fear-inducing and not evidence-based.
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Replying to @notdred @angie_rasmussen and
Yeah. I just kinda joked on an another thread, I'm very much "Ms. Red Team for Tail Risk" and they lost me. I have far more realistic terrible scenarios such as "we have effective vaccines and rich countries get most of them while everyone else suffers greatly for another year+".
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Replying to @ClancyNeil @zeynep and
Part of the problem here is doubling down on the “if we don’t control the disease we’ll get ever-worsening variants” message.
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or opposite could happen. need to be on message that 3 vax's in US work extraordinarily well-e..g., far better than most common vax's, antibiotic Rx of most common infns, other routine medical Rxs. best attack vs
#COVID19 caused by any type of SARS-CoV-2 is rapid & widespread vax1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes -
Replying to @ClancyNeil @zeynep and
Agreed. People don’t really appreciate how amazing these vaccines are.
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I have friends around the world who don't have access to vaccines, & I'm more worried about them *now* than pretty much anytime last year. The risk is here—likely worse—for the unvaccinated. "Fairly unlikely bad vaccine future scenario prominently in the news" is really jarring.
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I think the worst part is that both of these things are and are not true. Yes, we will likely see variants emerge and NPIs remain important. But no, "mutations mutating just a little more" is not the concern. We do need to continue with NPIs *and* focus on global vaccination.
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Replying to @angie_rasmussen @zeynep and
Exactly. It’s a problem but it shouldn’t be overemphasized/misapplied to support the priors of the speaker.
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