Sorry? Of course vaccines make a huge difference in cases, too. Am I misunderstanding the question?
-
-
and it's not a random 20%, its highly enriched for people at more risk of getting and passing on the virus
-
well, no, it isn't. it's high in elderly people and those who have risk factors. those people are by definition less mobile and thus less at risk of being infected than young healthy people who have to go to work.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
it's not a big enough number to keep R0 below 1. it has been below 1 for a while now; that graph clearly shows that the decrease started before the vaccination drive. so it seems obviously incorrect to assert a causal link
-
Rt has dropped below 1 before. Look at the decline after the first wave in NYC, for instance. It doesn’t mean permanent “herd immunity” if behavior and weather can still bring covid back, but it’s like a temporary herd immunity. 20% vaccinated people can be a big push.
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
I'm an internet rando so obviously not worth much but i think different age groups have differing transmission values so targeting older folks first has a greater impact on overall transmission than a homogeneous approach might predict.
-
Or rather looking at aggregate transmissions in Israel and the UK that's how i can get the numbers to shake out. I'm sure in time people who do this for a living will be able to add mobility data to make a more precise model.
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.