What I notice in this piece is the sheer number of informed people, all saying the same thing - variants mean it’s not over yethttps://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/03/health/coronavirus-variants-vaccines.html?referringSource=articleShare …
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Replying to @BillHanage
Although I’m a little worried that partial immune escape and higher transmissibility are being conflated here. The latter will speed things up (rather than prolong it, as the headline implies) and bring the next phase around *sooner* but tragically so—more infections.
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Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage
So not all variants are “drawing things out.” Quite the contrary. On partial immune escape, just amazing how everyone is ignoring what *actually* happened in South Africa without widespread vaccination. It’s like the most important data doesn’t count. Baffling.
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Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage
As u know it’s essential we message this right: variants drive
#COVID cases. Not all variants matter (#SARSCoV2 has mutated 1000s of times; not every mutation confers advantage to virus). Widespread vax’n drops risk of birthing more variants, but pandemic has no on/off switch2 replies 0 retweets 11 likes -
Replying to @drlucymcbride @BillHanage
Yes but. I think that understates there's a lot of unknowns remaining—and even on the latter: a good deal of work on variants being produced through lengthy within-host processes in immunocompromised patients. So yes VERY GOOD to drive down cases, but I'm wary of oversimplifying.
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Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage
Couldn’t agree more that oversimplification is risky — certainly in medicine it can mean the difference btw life & death. But we also can’t hold back from dispensing nuanced reality which you do w/ the elegance of an epidemiologist,
@zeynep1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes -
Correct all. And the pandemic is not over yet. But those vaccinated not getting severe disease thank goodness, just as the trials say, and in places vaccinating faster (UK, Israel), things going very well despite 80-90% variants so keep your eye on science, facts.
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Replying to @MonicaGandhi9 @drlucymcbride and
Curious about your thoughts on this claim.pic.twitter.com/oIWZXiv9yn
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I guess for some purposes, and where genomic surveillance is sufficient, but in most places, we wouldn't even be able to do that (though we can figure out when/if it becomes dominant and its trajectory).
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