I am not often wowed on Twitter in this direction (very positive). Zeynep says what I've been trying to preach to anyone who will listen "We are being epistemologically over-confident" (e.g. masks, NPIs) which leads to "lack of curiosity/research" (e.g. seasonality)https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1378757555820888070 …
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Zeynep, you're saying the community masking of healthy people (e.g. kids for 5 hours in cloth masks) cannot possibly increase infections? This has been debunked? I have not seen anything like that. Can you point me to it? What I saw was this from the WHO and NIH (both in 2020).pic.twitter.com/L5DujxzOF2
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Yes the below had been thoroughly debunked. +https://twitter.com/Scott_in_BK/status/1378816617094782978 …
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The differences are: 1. in the case of masks, people would not be doing anything they would until then have always regarded as excessively risky, they would simply be doing what they have always done until this pandemic. So the behavior change would be much smaller.
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2. Masks simply don't reduce risk nearly as much as eg seatbelts do, so it only takes much smaller increases in 'risk taking' to offset the supposed additional protection to create an effective increase in actual risk
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