What I notice in this piece is the sheer number of informed people, all saying the same thing - variants mean it’s not over yethttps://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/03/health/coronavirus-variants-vaccines.html?referringSource=articleShare …
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Replying to @BillHanage
Although I’m a little worried that partial immune escape and higher transmissibility are being conflated here. The latter will speed things up (rather than prolong it, as the headline implies) and bring the next phase around *sooner* but tragically so—more infections.
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Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage
So not all variants are “drawing things out.” Quite the contrary. On partial immune escape, just amazing how everyone is ignoring what *actually* happened in South Africa without widespread vaccination. It’s like the most important data doesn’t count. Baffling.
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Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage
We have a reasonable theory for how the virus spreads. Our understanding of how surges end is more limited, to put it diplomatically. Still many susceptible people, still plenty of virus, hard to document substantial changes in behavior and yet surges end
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Replying to @statesdj @BillHanage
I totally agree. There are clearly big unknowns here that are being somewhat ignored—to put it less diplomatically. I feel like we are being epistemologically over-confident which is fueling lack of curiosity/research into deeply relevant and quite interesting remaining puzzles.
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It is H-S seasonality. As a data scientist of 12 years and mph student I’ve been shouting it (and many others) but because I (and they) don’t have a phd in epi or it doesn’t line up with NPIs, it has been ignored. Massive failure of public health
@Hold2LLC1 reply 1 retweet 30 likes -
Replying to @districtai @Hold2LLC
Wow, the misplaced overconfidence in response to a call for data-driven epistemic humility. Don’t let anyone interrupt, I guess?
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Replying to @zeynep @districtai
Maybe take it this way... Seasonality was known to exist long before CoV2 arrived along with pandemic preparedness that said NOT to do most of what we ended up doing (and are still trying to force on people). Why were the "knowns" not front-and-center? And still not appraised?
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I actually wrote about just that last November. Before the big surge. https://zeynep.substack.com/p/balancing-epistemic-humility-and …pic.twitter.com/HaOug4xfMp
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