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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 4 Apr 2021

      What I notice in this piece is the sheer number of informed people, all saying the same thing - variants mean it’s not over yethttps://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/03/health/coronavirus-variants-vaccines.html?referringSource=articleShare …

      52 replies 217 retweets 747 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2021
      Replying to @BillHanage

      Although I’m a little worried that partial immune escape and higher transmissibility are being conflated here. The latter will speed things up (rather than prolong it, as the headline implies) and bring the next phase around *sooner* but tragically so—more infections.

      3 replies 2 retweets 84 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage

      So not all variants are “drawing things out.” Quite the contrary. On partial immune escape, just amazing how everyone is ignoring what *actually* happened in South Africa without widespread vaccination. It’s like the most important data doesn’t count. Baffling.

      6 replies 9 retweets 130 likes
    4. David States‏ @statesdj 4 Apr 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage

      We have a reasonable theory for how the virus spreads. Our understanding of how surges end is more limited, to put it diplomatically. Still many susceptible people, still plenty of virus, hard to document substantial changes in behavior and yet surges end

      5 replies 3 retweets 25 likes
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2021
      Replying to @statesdj @BillHanage

      I totally agree. There are clearly big unknowns here that are being somewhat ignored—to put it less diplomatically. I feel like we are being epistemologically over-confident which is fueling lack of curiosity/research into deeply relevant and quite interesting remaining puzzles.

      7 replies 9 retweets 88 likes
    6. District AI‏ @districtai 4 Apr 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @statesdj @BillHanage

      It is H-S seasonality. As a data scientist of 12 years and mph student I’ve been shouting it (and many others) but because I (and they) don’t have a phd in epi or it doesn’t line up with NPIs, it has been ignored. Massive failure of public health @Hold2LLC

      1 reply 1 retweet 30 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2021
      Replying to @districtai @Hold2LLC

      Wow, the misplaced overconfidence in response to a call for data-driven epistemic humility. Don’t let anyone interrupt, I guess?

      11:50 AM - 4 Apr 2021
      • 6 Likes
      • Matt arm and hammer and dance flexo rodriguez Xtra Laj BOUTROS ⽊ Feynman
      6 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Pedro Burgos‏Verified account @Burgos 4 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @districtai @Hold2LLC

          Here is the data for cases (top) and deaths in Manaus, the place where this P1 variant first surfaced in Brazil. Not enough vaccines yet (~10% of pop, with CoronaVac), and only a light/brief lockdown, with nightly curfew. In late february stores were open https://g1.globo.com/am/amazonas/noticia/2021/02/22/centro-de-manaus-tem-aglomeracoes-no-primeiro-dia-de-abertura-do-comercio-em-2021.ghtml …pic.twitter.com/EsPXl4Oa7Y

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Pedro Burgos‏Verified account @Burgos 4 Apr 2021
          Replying to @Burgos @zeynep and

          There are still some social distancing measures in place, but there are a lot of signs of life getting back to normal after a nightmarish scenario. "Effective immunity" at the population level might explain, but no one is really sure abt what happened. https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-03-31_BR_State_of_Amazonas_Mobility_Report_en.pdf …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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