What I notice in this piece is the sheer number of informed people, all saying the same thing - variants mean it’s not over yethttps://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/03/health/coronavirus-variants-vaccines.html?referringSource=articleShare …
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Replying to @BillHanage
Although I’m a little worried that partial immune escape and higher transmissibility are being conflated here. The latter will speed things up (rather than prolong it, as the headline implies) and bring the next phase around *sooner* but tragically so—more infections.
3 replies 2 retweets 84 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage
So not all variants are “drawing things out.” Quite the contrary. On partial immune escape, just amazing how everyone is ignoring what *actually* happened in South Africa without widespread vaccination. It’s like the most important data doesn’t count. Baffling.
6 replies 9 retweets 130 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage
We have a reasonable theory for how the virus spreads. Our understanding of how surges end is more limited, to put it diplomatically. Still many susceptible people, still plenty of virus, hard to document substantial changes in behavior and yet surges end
5 replies 3 retweets 25 likes
I totally agree. There are clearly big unknowns here that are being somewhat ignored—to put it less diplomatically. I feel like we are being epistemologically over-confident which is fueling lack of curiosity/research into deeply relevant and quite interesting remaining puzzles.
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