Although I’m a little worried that partial immune escape and higher transmissibility are being conflated here. The latter will speed things up (rather than prolong it, as the headline implies) and bring the next phase around *sooner* but tragically so—more infections.
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Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage
So not all variants are “drawing things out.” Quite the contrary. On partial immune escape, just amazing how everyone is ignoring what *actually* happened in South Africa without widespread vaccination. It’s like the most important data doesn’t count. Baffling.
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Replying to @zeynep
Yes really interesting that. I have my own views on what might have produced it, but don’t have data to address the question
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Replying to @BillHanage
Feels like it should get some attention???
It’s super interesting and obviously very relevant. Yet utterly missing from the “oh noes vaccines are useless against the SA variant” (which is obviously not what has been shown whatsoever but alas) message that’s now spreading.4 replies 3 retweets 36 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
I think it’s a good example of how we don’t know enough about the epidemiology of reinfections. How common they are, how severe, how infectious? Variants or not
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Replying to @BillHanage @zeynep
I mean... is pretty wildpic.twitter.com/ytEbVJXaCD
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Replying to @BillHanage
Exactly. Been talking to people about it for a while and completely baffled by apparent lack of curiosity in the “discourse” about something so striking and relevant.
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Replying to @zeynep
I suspect it is something to do with infectiousness of 2nd infections, but like I said, don’t have the data
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Replying to @BillHanage
One plausible path. Or a slight forward shift in incubation period that makes it more susceptible to NPIs (that one isn't my theory).
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Right, though the data/experience of last year makes it clear people react to surges outside of NPI mandates. Hence I wish there was real curiosity & a data-driven deep dive into what actually happened with this variant (rather than incorrect statements about vaccine efficacy).
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Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage
This is happening all over. The SA variant was found in the district of Schwaz in Tyrol, Austria, and strict NPI were implented along with a vax campaign. Now falling numbers (slightly lower than neighbors) are attributed to vax and noone is even looking at behavior/NPI
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