Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
Verified account
@zeynep

Tweets

zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

Tweets

  • © 2022 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 4 Apr 2021

      6. This gives rise to what we call "overshoot"—additional cases above and beyond the herd immunity threshold. @nataliexdean and I wrote an OpEd about this almost a year ago. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html …pic.twitter.com/psva23mwk0

      3 replies 184 retweets 1,219 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 4 Apr 2021

      7. Another thing to keep in mind is that the herd immunity threshold depends on the transmissibility of the disease—which depends on behavior. For example, in many places we could already be reaching the herd immunity threshold for a masked, socially distant world.

      6 replies 232 retweets 1,339 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 4 Apr 2021

      8. But that does not mean we've reached the herd immunity threshold for a world in which everyone returns to how things were in 2019. In other words, as you open up, the herd immunity threshold shifts higher.

      7 replies 297 retweets 1,567 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 4 Apr 2021

      9. The other thing to recognize is that implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions (masking, social distancing, gathering restrictions) around the herd immunity threshold is a *very* efficient way to reduce the total size of the epidemic, by reducing the overshoot.

      14 replies 260 retweets 1,517 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 4 Apr 2021

      10. We can see the basic principle in a simple SEIR model. Implementing aggressive controls for even a short period around the herd immunity threshold reduces the overshoot and prevents many cases that would have occurred without controls.pic.twitter.com/EyL0jeNgFT

      4 replies 212 retweets 1,103 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 4 Apr 2021

      11. For this reason, it's a big mistake to open up right when you're reaching the herd immunity threshold but before the number of current cases—the momentum of the pandemic, so to speak–is low. This will generate a larger overshoot and lead to many preventable infections.

      13 replies 399 retweets 1,642 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 4 Apr 2021

      12. In the above I have used simple SEIR models to illustrate the basic concept of herd immunity during an ongoing pandemic, and the notion of overshoot. In practice, we're dealing with a complex situation where these lessons hold but the dynamics are more complicated.

      4 replies 74 retweets 801 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 4 Apr 2021

      13. In particular, we have a) ongoing vaccination as well as natural immunity b) ongoing behavioral changes c) highest-risk groups already vaccinated d) increasing cases due to variants of concern that spread at higher rates than the previous strains. These all interact.

      8 replies 109 retweets 966 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 4 Apr 2021

      14. So I'm not aiming to predict exactly what the next couple of months will look like. My main point: Reaching herd immunity is necessary but not sufficient to relax control measures. To do that, you also want to have a low number of cases to avoid overshoot.

      11 replies 206 retweets 1,244 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 4 Apr 2021

      Carl T. Bergstrom Retweeted Carl T. Bergstrom

      15. Finally, I'm already being accused of moving the goalposts. For the record, the goalposts were always here. Below, a thread I wrote nearly a year ago explaining these same points and stressing the need for controls around the herd immunity threshold.https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1252075528711860224 …

      Carl T. Bergstrom added,

      Carl T. BergstromVerified account @CT_Bergstrom
      1. I believe that if #SARSCoV2 is allowed to spread uncontrolled through an entire nation, it will be an unprecedented humanitarian disaster. Every possible measure should be taken to prevent this from happening. Yet in some countries this may be unavoidable.
      Show this thread
      48 replies 175 retweets 1,658 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2021
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

      I tried to explain both the overshoot and how remaining large numbers of unvaccinated people can interact with local outbreaks in a recent piece. My experience is that many people think of herd immunity like a switch rather than a population-level dynamic. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/03/fourth-surge-variant-vaccine/618463/ …pic.twitter.com/878bClZquB

      10:05 AM - 4 Apr 2021
      • 28 Retweets
      • 99 Likes
      • Andrew Bore Zombie Life Jen Helen "18 USC 2383, 2384, & 2385" Shin Tobias Hohl MD, PhD Martin Pontz b d wildeman Kate #NoColdWar Stefanie Schulte #GenoVerband Arjuna Mahendra
      4 replies 28 retweets 99 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Melanopolis  💉 💪🏼‏ @melanied333 4 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @CT_Bergstrom

          Is there any good news whatsoever?

          5 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 4 Apr 2021
          Replying to @melanied333 @zeynep

          Yes! The vaccines are amazing and the US rollout is going very well.

          0 replies 0 retweets 32 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp 4 Apr 2021
          Replying to @GoodwinCharlie

          Sorry this content is not available on Thread Reader 😕 It has been removed by the author. 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. Mark von Wahlde‏ @schlockdaddy 4 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @CT_Bergstrom

          Americans are well-conditioned binary, either or, the other side thinkers.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. did everything right discocat‏ @discoball2000 4 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @CT_Bergstrom

          But if those most at risk from serious illness and death are in the 75% vaccinated group then surely there is no justification for ongoing restrictions just to protect the 25% from having mild illness or asymptomatic infection?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2022 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info