After calling it anti-science for months, yes, that idea was poisoned. But slight delays in booster schedules are not uncommon, and doing it *with* an early trial (which is what we proposed) would have let us monitor & swiftly adjust if we got a negative signal (like an uptick).
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Replying to @WhelanHealth @j_g_allen and
Yes. Not altering the schedule even a bit was widely presented as "we are sticking to science" and UK was ridiculed for delaying doses (even though it was their scientific committee of pretty high-level experts who recommended it) etc.
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Replying to @zeynep @WhelanHealth and
Is this the bottleneck in the US though? At this point in time, supply seems to be significantly higher than what has been administered.pic.twitter.com/7cVugLGM3w
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Replying to @PrasadKasibhat1 @WhelanHealth and
It has been for months... For weeks, my own clinic stopped giving out any first doses on and off (there were none allocated) while continuing to direct almost all available doses to booster. It still is in lots of places. Numbers are super clear (and will be analyzed eventually).
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Replying to @zeynep @PrasadKasibhat1 and
Supply looks higher but there's reporting time lag (and early on there was a bit of logistics bottleneck but that was resolved pretty quickly—personal experience plus watching numbers) and in lots of places, the main bottleneck has been, and is, not enough first doses allocated.
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Replying to @zeynep @WhelanHealth and
So you mean that while it looks like supply is higher, it is only because what looks like an oversupply is simply because those doses are being reserved for the second dose? And so if the policy was changed to prioritize first dose, these doses would have been used up by now
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Replying to @PrasadKasibhat1 @WhelanHealth and
From what I can tell, there isn't a lot of doses waiting on shelves because of a distribution bottleneck (and hasn't been the case since January) and those differences are mostly the time between dose gets sent to gets administered and reported back.*
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Replying to @zeynep @PrasadKasibhat1 and
Meanwhile, of course all the doses that went to boosters being allocated to first doses would, ceteris paribus even with distribution bottlenecks, would have increased the number of first doses in corresponding fashion.
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Finally, the trial we suggested wasn't without some tiers: the elderly show the most need for boosters in earlier phase trials, and a trial delay more among younger cohorts (while carefully watching for negative signals) would have been one potential path.
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Replying to @zeynep @PrasadKasibhat1 and
*Federal allocations to long-term care facilities is a different question. There has been a real lag their due to the unexpectedly high refusal rates among the staff. Some states have relocated those.
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