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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Apr 2021

    zeynep tufekci Retweeted Paul Cantrell

    I DO agree with this. We should have closed much faster, when necessary (early action=much more bang for buck) *and* opened faster while monitoring for upticks (which being able to close faster would facilitate: if decisions aren't seen as permanent, we can be more flexible).https://twitter.com/inthehands/status/1377638429551329282 …

    zeynep tufekci added,

    Paul Cantrell @inthehands
    A @zeynep-ish thought I’ve been mulling over: Clear predefined thresholds for closing & reopening have been notably absent. States, cities, schools have all preferred nuanced decisions. In hindsight, this looks like a mistake. We’ve been far too slow to close •and• reopen.
    Show this thread
    8:31 AM - 1 Apr 2021
    • 24 Retweets
    • 143 Likes
    • Eric H Josh Kaplan Shabby Tigers Greg Marchese Gail Nevin James Lewis Aralezner John Anglin - Cartoonist Bentalope
    11 replies 24 retweets 143 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Zoë McLaren, PhD‏ @ZoeMcLaren 1 Apr 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        It's a classic control theory problem. R is inherently unstable (the pandemic yo-yo) and relying on a delayed trigger (political leaders) amplifies swings and is sub-optimal. Quicker closing means quicker re-opening. It's the circuit breaker idea.

        2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
      3. Chris Otto‏ @ChrisOttoLNP 1 Apr 2021
        Replying to @ZoeMcLaren @zeynep

        Is it also true that, while the decisionmaking on closing/reopening was perhaps questionable, even a proper and aggressive reopening strategy would have been undermined by failures in the testing/contact tracing infrastructure?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Paul Cantrell‏ @inthehands 1 Apr 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        Glad you agree. ☺️ I do believe we chronically underestimate the power of default settings. Vendors of user-surveilling software with privacy controls have of course long been wise to this. Public institutions? Not so much.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. John O'Neil‏Verified account @THAToneil 1 Apr 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        How about this: If you're thinking about closing, close. Or: the way to reopen fast is to close before you "need" to. The criteria NYS adopted after the first wave became a contributing factor to the second wave, when closings that clearly were in the works were delayed.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 1 Apr 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        CA has tiered system so we open and close as cases & %posititivity change. Transparent system but didn't stop huge surge in nov-jan & may contribute to oscillations around moderate cases #s.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. rst‏ @rsthau 1 Apr 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        Quick massive shutdowns at the first sign of local transmission have let the economy stay fully open with negligible transmission most of the time, in areas ranging from New Zealand (yes, a small Pacific island) to the Peoples' Republic of China (well... Pacific?).

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Graeme Blake‏ @graemeblake 3 Apr 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        In the Atlantic zone of Canada, New Brunswick did this. They’ve performed the worst. The better performing provinces did super fast lockdowns, for longer than needed. Then lifted early based on subjective judgement of public health.

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      1. Graeme Blake‏ @graemeblake 3 Apr 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        The problem is that the rule which leads to the least long term pain is actually “shut down the instant you have untraced community spread” then spring back up once you don’t. It feels so premature no one actually wrote it in any rules.

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      1. New conversation
      2. Graeme Blake‏ @graemeblake 3 Apr 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        But in PEI and NS, high trust institutions were able to make the case that “woah there is spread and we are concerned” and were able to get broad support for fast action and fast testing. After a couple goes, public saw fast action = fast lifting

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Apr 2021
        Replying to @graemeblake

        PEI?

        3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies

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