It's a classic control theory problem. R is inherently unstable (the pandemic yo-yo) and relying on a delayed trigger (political leaders) amplifies swings and is sub-optimal. Quicker closing means quicker re-opening. It's the circuit breaker idea.
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Is it also true that, while the decisionmaking on closing/reopening was perhaps questionable, even a proper and aggressive reopening strategy would have been undermined by failures in the testing/contact tracing infrastructure?
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Glad you agree.
I do believe we chronically underestimate the power of default settings. Vendors of user-surveilling software with privacy controls have of course long been wise to this. Public institutions? Not so much.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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How about this: If you're thinking about closing, close. Or: the way to reopen fast is to close before you "need" to. The criteria NYS adopted after the first wave became a contributing factor to the second wave, when closings that clearly were in the works were delayed.
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CA has tiered system so we open and close as cases & %posititivity change. Transparent system but didn't stop huge surge in nov-jan & may contribute to oscillations around moderate cases
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Quick massive shutdowns at the first sign of local transmission have let the economy stay fully open with negligible transmission most of the time, in areas ranging from New Zealand (yes, a small Pacific island) to the Peoples' Republic of China (well... Pacific?).
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In the Atlantic zone of Canada, New Brunswick did this. They’ve performed the worst. The better performing provinces did super fast lockdowns, for longer than needed. Then lifted early based on subjective judgement of public health.
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The problem is that the rule which leads to the least long term pain is actually “shut down the instant you have untraced community spread” then spring back up once you don’t. It feels so premature no one actually wrote it in any rules.
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But in PEI and NS, high trust institutions were able to make the case that “woah there is spread and we are concerned” and were able to get broad support for fast action and fast testing. After a couple goes, public saw fast action = fast lifting
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