.@zeynep heralds the 4th wave. Charts a way out. Will we take it? In states, red & blue, there is no stomach for closures, people are tired of masks, miss their friends, seek them out. How many will we sacrifice just as the dawn begins to break?https://theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/03/fourth-surge-variant-vaccine/618463/ …
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Replying to @gregggonsalves @zeynep
What makes you believe that there is no stomach for closures? I think we should separate the public from elected officials on this - because elected officials absolutely are needlessly sacrificing lives in exchange for economic activity, rather than *leading* on public health
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Replying to @wsbgnl @gregggonsalves
What would you propose as feasible? I focused more on things doable at the Federal level.
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Replying to @zeynep @gregggonsalves
I think it’s hard to tell what’s feasible when the public health community isn’t openly debating all the options, and there is no pressure on elected officials to take action or face accountability for inaction. Minimum, we need temporary OSHA standards.
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@zeynep lays out a set of interventions. What are the other options you'd like considered?2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @gregggonsalves @zeynep
I am not sure about vaccination strategies, but as far as NPIs I think we can go further than a pause. Israel and the UK implemented shutdowns with household support when they had a similar death rate. Personally I think we should go big on curbing transmission in final stretch.pic.twitter.com/9OjRwgG3sY
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Replying to @wsbgnl @gregggonsalves
And they still struggled for a while. One twist here is the state/federal conflict.
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Replying to @zeynep @gregggonsalves
Yeah - Germany and Canada have similar conflicts and have been navigating imperfectly but better than us. What’s really missing here is public debate and accountability for elected officials. The question is what public health experts ought to be demanding and making it feasible.
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I think current US debates are circumscribed by what prominent commentators believe is feasible and that’s been creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. We need to break out of that and demand what actually makes the most public health sense and push elected officials that direction.
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One possibility is that the genuine short-term nature of what’s needed can help make things happen in some places. Unfortunately, though, there has been a lot of trust lost in the “it’s just for a while” kind of messaging that wasn’t well-calibrated to reality, to say the least.
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Replying to @zeynep @gregggonsalves
I think with good leadership and communication enough people will comply to make it worthwhile. Business closures and stronger safety standards can probably go quite a ways. Maybe possible to emphasize spring weather and what things are still possible while curbing transmission.
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My guess is that the most resistant group is business owners, and they aren’t going to want to use their PPP loans for a shutdown. But it’s certainly possible to compensate them.
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