Why does the differential growth in frequency of B.1.1.7 among locations matter? b/c in much of the US cases were falling rapidly in Jan-Feb, but have started rising again in some places (rapidly in MI).pic.twitter.com/3iqUxcYl6R
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Oh. Good points. Paper by @StephenKissler @yhgrad suggests longer pre-symptomatic for B.1.1.7 (but small N) than d614g. Definitely important traits to study. Haven't seen much detailed info on viral loads for b.1.351.
Yes, I know the paper! I find B.1.1.7 to be quite a threat. Appears more resistant to NPIs, likely more lethal too, wreaks havoc (at least for a while) even in partially-vaccinated populations. Meanwhile, does B.1.135 immune escape cause any uptick for severe disease? Not clear.
So, speculatively, that combo could account for re-infection (spiking again in the highly-connected population) and the antibody drop findings of b.1.135 and the South Africa surge/fall trajectory. Meanwhile, note the persistent havoc B.1.1.7 (no immune evasion) seems to wreak.
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