Where are you getting one out of 25?
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Replying to @zeynep
“Being a child 0-4 the risk against hospitalization is 96 percent.” 1-.96=.04=1/25 infected children are hospitalized
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Replying to @bkeegan
NO NO NO That’s was a relative risk reduction... Reporting like vaccine efficacy. Wow now I’m realizing everyone is misunderstanding that stat (also people misunderstand vaccine efficacy numbers). It’s not a good way to report risk to be honest.
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Replying to @zeynep
Well this household of two PhDs with a two-year-old needs a ELI5.
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The underlying CDC page is…also not great. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html … Why are 5-17 year olds the "reference group"? Do they just have the lowest (best) odds?pic.twitter.com/BINqRUHZC7
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Replying to @johnhawkinson @bkeegan
They do. But yeah hard to communicate.
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& the Atlantic piece makes it even more confusing, since it changes the reference group to 75-84 year olds. I.e., the odds that your 0-4 year old will be hospitalized are ~4% those of an 80 year old (whose odds of hospitalization are < 100%).
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Eek yeah. We had the same problem with reporting on the vaccine efficacy, Bloomberg tweeting stuff like 8%, iirc, of vaccinated people had gotten sick. (Trying to report 92% efficacy iirc). I think it took three tries to get them to get the right number.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Carl T. Bergstrom
See exasperated thread. Multiple tries...https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1357749673847447554 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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