I think actually this is not empirically true, the CIA document describing HIV as a security threat changed a lot of people’s footing inside the USG even if that’s not what they said it was about
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Replying to @MMKavanagh @zeynep and
I don’t like it, didn’t at the time, but it was persuasive to several governments
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Replying to @MMKavanagh @jbkrell and
I guess it can move elite opinion. See that with climate, too. (We all agree let's not be sociopaths isn't the argument anyone prefers). I don't see such arguments moving public opinion in a positive way though: historically, such fears end up with demanding closure/exclusion.
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Right so question is what moves policy though—is it public opinion? I think less than elite opinion on these questions
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Replying to @MMKavanagh @zeynep and
If you look at HIV we moved public opinion along with policy not before
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Replying to @MMKavanagh @jbkrell and
I'm willing to buy that that this argument may be the one that moves elite opinion and perhaps that matters more. Elites aren't always rational but they do tend to, often incorrectly, have a Hobbesian view of the public when it is often them, not the public, that is prone to it.
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Yes exactly this
. And there it matters some how sound the rationale is—so I think the questions you’re raising are key and also we should be cautious because if it is scientifically sound (leave that to the virologists) then we want this argument in the arsenal1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes -
Replying to @MMKavanagh @jbkrell and
Yeah, as my piece says, nobody doubts that eliminating unchecked viral propagation is better, but strong evidence that all three variants of concern may have risen through chronic individual infections plus antiviral treatments (One in the UK! Not "over there").
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Replying to @zeynep @MMKavanagh and
Exactly. I think what you can argue is that we would all be better off in terms of variants if we had actually invested in the capacity of all countries to detect and sequence pathogens. For that you can certainly make a „selfish“ argument.
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Sigh, I can believe this resonates with the overlords. It's a bit like how some economic theories of the selfish individual only work on econ majors. I guess I don't know it's good or bad if they think it through a little bit more.
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Yup exactly.
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