I don’t think that is a proper analogy. In HIV, cART drugs suppress HIV replication by targeting various stages in the viral life cycle. So a large untreated population, which is not exposed to cART drugs, experiences no selective pressure to develop resistance mutations.
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Replying to @jbkrell @gregggonsalves and
The analogy isn't to the type of virus at all, it is to the type of appeals made to ordinary people in wealthy countries.
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Replying to @zeynep @gregggonsalves and
Perhaps we are speaking pass each other. But I think given what we know about coronaviruses, theAbsence of universal global vaccination will actually pose a threat to rich people and rich countries. And therefore unlike HIV the selfish argument works
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Replying to @jbkrell @gregggonsalves and
And I'm merely pointing out that some people back then also thought the selfish HIV argument would work (I heard it a lot at the time!) and it did not really work.Y'all had to push. Is there an example of it working? (Yes we all agree shouldn't have to come down to this).
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Replying to @JInterlandi @zeynep and
Agreed. I think it’s a bit too soon to give up on any argument, we will probably need all of them. (Btw, there are other vaccine campaigns rich countries have funded out of self-interest)
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Replying to @apoorva_nyc @JInterlandi and
Chiming in late here, but I don‘t think there is any question that having the virus replicate anywhere is a risk for everyond everywhere. My main gripe is with the scientific argument that shifting doses from rich countries to poor countries now makes a huge difference in that.
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Replying to @kakape @apoorva_nyc and
I think the scientific argument is about increasing vaccine production capacity globally to reduce overall replication, while equitable rollout now is mostly a moral and justice and public health argument.
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Replying to @kakape @apoorva_nyc and
Yep, as my own piece says it is, of course, better to get rid of the virus but the current problem variants may well have emerged not from population growth but through individual immunopathology and vaccinate globally now is a moral argument that won't shift the variant picture.
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Just one thing: the emergence of variants from immunocompromised people is a hypothesis that is a long way from proven, and convergent evolution suggests it might not actually be driving the emergence of variants of concern. Also could be both.
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Yeah I say this in the piece but it's clearly plausible and may be both (seems everyone agrees). The point Kai is making is that the selfish argument on variant threats, logically, speaking, is to hoard the vaccine here *now* while the moral argument is to vaccinate "them" now.
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