Man, 38% of people tested for antibodies in this study in California came back positive. 45% in LA! (Not totally clear on the sampling methodology.) https://twitter.com/TAragonMD/status/1370268637425115140?s=20 …pic.twitter.com/4mRTY2vfJ7
Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org
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Man, 38% of people tested for antibodies in this study in California came back positive. 45% in LA! (Not totally clear on the sampling methodology.) https://twitter.com/TAragonMD/status/1370268637425115140?s=20 …pic.twitter.com/4mRTY2vfJ7
This gels pretty well with a 3x-5x heuristic, right?
Yeah. I think it's really California's number of confirmed cases that snuck up on me.
Yeah. US has ~30 million confirmed cases (maybe 100 million actual ones?). People keep forgetting that in their calculations. (The number of *very* mainstream media articles that argued we'll never reach herd immunity without taking that number into account.. Too many).
I think the scientific literacy of the media has improved a lot this year but weirdly they still often only treat a case as real only if it's tested & reported by an authority. My in-laws watch these numbers with a confusing intensity ("did you hear it's up to 30M now!?")
Yeah though even that's a crazy high number!
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