It's probably going to sweep a lot of European countries—even ones that had massive waves because "massive waves" usually involve 10-30% infected, leaving another 70% vulnerable. I don't understand why it's so hard to explain how exponential threats work, even after a year.
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Replying to @zeynep @dylanhmorris
So far predictions of the impact of B.1.1.7 on overall case numbers have not fared well. Simplistic modeling assumptions work really well at the beginning of the epidemic. Working out the effects of changes (e.g. variants) when you're well into it seems much more difficult.
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Replying to @WesPegden @dylanhmorris
But why do you need precise predictions to say that a variant that is 1.5-2x more transmissible is a huge public health threat. Clearly, prior immunity and vaccination rate and/or NPI levels will impact the level of threat and trajectory but... a threat it is.
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Replying to @zeynep @dylanhmorris
I think there is no doubt that COVID is a huge public health threat (and one that polls show the public does not generally underestimate). It is unclear to me how much VOCs help us give people the right intuitions for how to respond to that threat (or predict the next big wave).
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Replying to @WesPegden @dylanhmorris
Places without widespread vaccination risk another surge seems pretty straightforward? Italy reported ~17% of its cases were the UK variant about a month ago. It's lagging in vaccination; cases are already way up, deaths are ticking up.pic.twitter.com/sdrzaB1kk2
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Replying to @zeynep @dylanhmorris
And then there's the prediction in Canada that hasn't panned out, and France... I agree, certainly, that COVID remains a big risk while vaccination rates are low. But I think the predictive value of VOC's for in terms of where that risk translates to reality remains unclear.
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Replying to @WesPegden @dylanhmorris
You could say the same thing when Italy was being crushed last spring and it hadn't *yet* "panned out" in France or Canada. Again, prior immunity, vaccination rate and NPIs will impact but ceteris paribus, if Italy is hit, that's a threat to any similar, nearby country.
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Replying to @zeynep @dylanhmorris
If VOC predictions about what happens next prove as reliable as last spring's predictions about what, broadly, would happen next I'd count that as a remarkable success for modeling. I think it is much more subtle problem; and VOCs much less a paradigm shift than COVID itself.
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(I do agree that looking at Italy and thinking that may have implications for other nearby countries is reasonable, but I also think that is true without VOCs.)
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Well, obviously going from no COVID to COVID is a bigger shift than COVID—a year in—to more transmissible version as a threat. I don't think that's in dispute.
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