It's probably going to sweep a lot of European countries—even ones that had massive waves because "massive waves" usually involve 10-30% infected, leaving another 70% vulnerable. I don't understand why it's so hard to explain how exponential threats work, even after a year.
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If VOC predictions about what happens next prove as reliable as last spring's predictions about what, broadly, would happen next I'd count that as a remarkable success for modeling. I think it is much more subtle problem; and VOCs much less a paradigm shift than COVID itself.
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(I do agree that looking at Italy and thinking that may have implications for other nearby countries is reasonable, but I also think that is true without VOCs.)
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