It's probably going to sweep a lot of European countries—even ones that had massive waves because "massive waves" usually involve 10-30% infected, leaving another 70% vulnerable. I don't understand why it's so hard to explain how exponential threats work, even after a year.
Then you also realize we did not get B.1.1.7 introduced/growing in the US until more recently—unlike UK, obviously and much of Europe—and we have been lucky that way? Motte-and-bailey needs a bit better finessing here.
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B117 is prevalent in many states now. No impact on trajectory. It's 50% or more in Florida. Across many states, no impact. And outside the US as well. Many places w/no impact. Few places w/impact that is likely just confounding.
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I have said for a long time: rise to dominance does not necessarily translate to a substantial increase in infectiousness. This is an assumption. There are multiple ways this could happen. Multiple variants have appeared & become dominant throughout the pandemic.
End of conversation
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