Trying to get people's head around the number of people who are still vulnerable is a daily challenge. They see a big number of cases and deaths behind us and think that must be it. The idea that we've been nowhere near the high end of rate of infection is beyond many.
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How much do we know about how the UK variant was already here? Seems like our genetic testing was so lacking. Is there a chance it was already widespread here during our last peak?
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B.1.1.7 was detected in November. A strain with B.1.1.7 mutations and Eek too was found in Oregon recently. Eek is the vaccine-evasion mutation.https://www.opb.org/article/2021/03/11/oregon-covid-19-variant-discovery-research-solutions/ …
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They should teach exponential or multiplicative vs additive processes in schools after teaching addition and multiplication.
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it's not hard to explain, it's hard for people to accept.
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So far predictions of the impact of B.1.1.7 on overall case numbers have not fared well. Simplistic modeling assumptions work really well at the beginning of the epidemic. Working out the effects of changes (e.g. variants) when you're well into it seems much more difficult.
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B117 and other VoCs may end up being the best example of scientists en masse cherry-picking data over a period of months to sustain a modeling prediction they all decided was 100% accurate w/o good evidence. I have little faith now there will ever be an admission of mistakes.
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It's hard because it would necessitate drastic changes to habits. But changing habits is hard; much easier to blame others for not doing enough. Hence the focus on quantitative (e.g. socializing too much), rather than qualitative (i.e. how to make it safe).
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We just entered Lockdown II: Avoidable Boogaloo with the UK variant rampant because even though experts kept talking about r values and the looming shortage of ICU beds, we kept pretending that the (mild) restrictions we had would bring an end to all this if we just tried harder.
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I literally *just* saw a talk about how B.1.1.7 has swept in Switzerland. Europe about 5 weeks behind the UK, US 12 weeks (although note there’s a lot of regional variation in no. of introductions and other factors)
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Yeah. Prior immunity/NPI level/vaccination and introductions/stochasticity is going to impact trajectories but... the amount of stickiness in UK and Israel even after vaccinations began provide a clue, too. US looks to be *just* outrunning it which is great but... not everywhere.
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