A terrific take on what epidemiologists missed (understanding human responses and well-performed serological prevalence studies) and (and done well - vaccines) by @maciekboni
Well worth the read!https://theconversation.com/two-gaps-to-fill-for-the-2021-2022-winter-wave-of-covid-19-cases-156169 …
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Which is not to say that behavior does not matter! (As I said, that's my bread-and-butter) but it's probably not going to get the analytic bang we seek from it predictively. I suspect we may get an interesting prospective look from detailed mobility data. Not sure we do yet.
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If you could develop a rough model that gives broad guidelines for "over safe" behavior would that be a bad thing? Or is any analysis inherently fraught regardless of accuracy and margin of safety?
End of conversation
New conversation -
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