A terrific take on what epidemiologists missed (understanding human responses and well-performed serological prevalence studies) and (and done well - vaccines) by @maciekboni
Well worth the read!https://theconversation.com/two-gaps-to-fill-for-the-2021-2022-winter-wave-of-covid-19-cases-156169 …
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Two, this "must be behavior by elimination" a wee-bit dangerous. Could it be? Maybe. But it could also partly be things we don't—yet—understand. Did cases drop so precipitously in multiple countries with so many different cultures at the same time all due to behavior? I'm.. wary.pic.twitter.com/mslteOF6Pc
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It's probably too tempting to make human behavioral change into a just-so story retrospectively, and probably almost impossible to use it as a predictive variable prospectively in the kind of complex environment we have in a pandemic.
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During 2020 especially. It seemed, that much pop. behavior was driven by political dynamics. Maybe it's possible to predict human behavior in the aggregate. But it seems very hard to predict how (ego-driven) dynamics, seemingly involving only a few politicians, will play out.
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