A terrific take on what epidemiologists missed (understanding human responses and well-performed serological prevalence studies) and (and done well - vaccines) by @maciekboni
Well worth the read!https://theconversation.com/two-gaps-to-fill-for-the-2021-2022-winter-wave-of-covid-19-cases-156169 …
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First, modeling reflexivity (which is what social science folks call the thing being described here: people will respond to what's going on, which will change what's going on) in any way that's truly predictive is not just hard, may well be intractable in such situations.
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Two, this "must be behavior by elimination" a wee-bit dangerous. Could it be? Maybe. But it could also partly be things we don't—yet—understand. Did cases drop so precipitously in multiple countries with so many different cultures at the same time all due to behavior? I'm.. wary.pic.twitter.com/mslteOF6Pc
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Thanks for the thoughtful comments
@zeynep, I also don't think we will get any short-term high-quality forecasting from behavioral modeling, but I do think the effort is worth it for understanding longer term trends. 1/ -
Essentially, traditional epidemiological modeling leads to two possible incidence patterns - epidemic and endemic. We don't have a baseline model to describe the slow swells and ebbs of cases that we saw from April to October. 2/
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