Tfw your pants begin to fall off as you round third base.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1366845772914962437 …
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Strikes me as especially bad to send a message like "you can stop being careful now because OTHER people are getting vaccinated". If it's that simple, why should any hesitant person even bother getting vaccinated?
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time for some game theory
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Do you think the beginnings of a “4th wave” are already baked in? Even if not, seems doubtful the U.S. is capable of backtracking from the momentum to socialize/re-open already started in many areas.
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My back of the envelope calculation is, no, it's not baked in at all as a surge. (Assuming that B117 is here, that we would follow Denmark/UK trajectory). But we don't have good genomic surveillance *and* some people will get infected even if not a full-fledged surge.
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I have no idea what is going to happen, but given that most people are still not doing things (as in places are below capacity) i find it hard to believe that it will make that much of an impact.
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As you and others have pointed out in multiple ways, however, the message has been we will live like this indefinitely or at least until Christmas.
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Yeah that was a key reason I was irked by that messaging. It makes it much harder to convince people to wait if it's a whole other year. (And no reason to think it will be... Not that I'd be against it if that was the grim reality but it's not).
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No message will work. Once a position becomes a marker of your political identity - like masks are for the GOP - its no longer subject to argument and persuasion. You can't talk a New Yorker into cheering the Red Sox.
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I've been terribly optimistic and have been rallying people around how vaccination is gonna help us all have the best summer. I don't know how to explain the tradeoff of *Amazing Summer Pandemic Over* against a margin gain of 'tepid maskless meal in March.' Its a marshmallow.
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My message now would be "don't be the last person to die needlessly in this war. It will be over soon. Walk fast and keep your head down for a couple more weeks."
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