Currently discussing the @zeynep article over Slack. Do we have an idea of how many people who get Covid are never very infectious at all, vs how many become potential superspreaders? What does the distribution look like?pic.twitter.com/YT8iX1SW7g
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I do understand that infectiousness is a behavioral thing. But it’s also just a biological thing. I guess I’m trying to strip out the behavioral part and just look at, if I get Covid, what’s the probability that I’ll just never be infectious enough to infect anybody?
This paper is helpful: https://elifesciences.org/articles/63537
Suggests that majority are infectious for a very short window.
We discuss more here under period of infectiousness https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-5008 … @EricMeyerowitz
So we do know (and have known for a while) what the distribution looks like under a variety of conditions. (Japan had overdispersion nailed by February. SARS, too, was overdispersed). It's a crucial part of the triad needed to control it: presymptomatic, airborne, overdispersed.
And how could we figure out if vaccines reduce (how much) the chance someone becomes a superspreader?
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