You know the saying: how generals are always fighting the last war? That's not fate. We *can* put the last war to good use by learning from it. It's especially important to realize that things can fail because of structure and incentives. Good intentions are great—but not enough.
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Vaccines will/should allow expanded private behaviors for the vaccinated and we should be more chill and encouraging of outdoors is not only compatible with, is supportive of the idea that we should be MORE *on guard* indoors while we vaccinate and outrun the variants spreading.pic.twitter.com/HK677CbBZj
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Is this all still relevant? Yes. London News today: "Crowds flock to parks and beaches despite Covid-19 warning from top scientists." Look at the pics! (Also UK had a "eat out to help out" plan subsidizing INDOOR dining—no take-out allowed—they may reportedly bring back soon).pic.twitter.com/vWAtAUhctE
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One year ago today. I’m not blaming him—it is true, that was the overwhelming message. We can and should stop being behind transitions and start acting/adjusting ahead of or with them. Matters for the endgame, too.https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1232770729290035202 …
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It was one year ago yesterday I published an article urging people to get ready, trying to explain flattening the curve, etc. because I was so frustrated with lack of advice on how and why to prepare. So I'm advocating for getting ready for transitions—not optimism or pessimism.pic.twitter.com/eBgFmrKknq
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We often get shoehorned into inappropriate binaries. Optimist or pessimist? (I'll admit being an optimist personality-wise but my analytical interests are usually the opposite: I'm on the lookout for what can go wrong). The interesting questions we face don't fit into binaries.
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TIL from
@joshgans response to my article: Medical community *opposed* teaching kids 1-4 how to swim because... it would make the parents complacent. Meanwhile, in real life, lessons at that age is associated with an ~88% reduction in drowning risk. https://joshuagans.substack.com/p/optimal-anxiety …pic.twitter.com/ejBRE1tGVn
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This logic of denying safety devices/tools or tiered information or better guidelines to ordinary people against terrible outcomes they *would* like to avoid because of fears of "risk compensation" or "false sense of security" is.. almost always bunk *and* counterproductive.
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Randomized trials are amazing and necessary for many things, but what gets implemented without them (despite no evidence) and what doesn't (despite tons of other kinds of strong evidence) is often.. a function of what the authorities feel comfortable with.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1366385652636475394 …
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Painful account to follow, but important to learn from what actually happened.https://twitter.com/YearCovid/status/1366400080098459654 …
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This is amazing. This should happen everywhere in the world. I wish we actively celebrated these moving moments. This isn’t just some routine event. Vaccines are about as close to an earthly miracle as it gets. And we got them so fast for COVID.https://twitter.com/petemuntean/status/1366442688296456192 …
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Every time I go on media and say the obvious: outdoors IS safer with much less risk of superspreading (I don't know of a single confirmed outdoor-only mass transmission event) many people object and say Rose Garden! Sturgis! Neither were outdoor only. The price of misinformation.
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The immediate backlash to pointing out the most basic, most obvious thing after a whole year—yes, yes, please go outdoors, but do avoid especially poorly-ventilated, crowded indoors—is a tragic confirmation of what I'm trying to say. We have not informed and empowered people.
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We have pictures from the White House cluster—it was a multi-day process with multiple maskless (!) indoor components. We have papers from the Sturgis rally—what infection we did find was indoors. Outdoor transmission isn't impossible, but relatively rare.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1363522936431345666 …
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Such widespread misinformation—not distinguishing the much safer outdoors from the highest risk environments: poorly-ventilated indoors and explaining why—has a great cost because if people don't know how to keep themselves safer, they cannot keep themselves safer. Tragic.
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Sometimes people say why are you beating the outdoors drum? Doesn't everyone know? I wish. I mean this happened just yesterday. I go on any broadcast medium to say outdoors *is* safer, I get flooded by people who say "how dare you" and who have no idea.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1366520460138213380 …
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Yes. Photograph choice matters. Beaches, parks, the photogenic outdoor portion of an event that was part of a multi-day process with many unmasked *indoors* meetings and a reception... This isn't how we inform people.https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1366743396925272065 …
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So the below happened *after* we already saw exponential growth outside of China—Italy, South Korea, Iran.. Exponential growth gets harder & harder to curb, so those weeks mattered. Transitions are crucial: by the time everything is obvious, it's too late.https://twitter.com/YearCovid/status/1366756679837097985 …
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It's too early to open up everything and stop wearing masks in public—again especially indoors. Why risk so many people when we are so so close? On the other hand, yeah, *do* go outdoors and provide better safety for the workers who can't just "stay home".https://twitter.com/zachdespart/status/1366840400875556871 …
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Vaccines ARE great, but unvaccinated people aren't any more protected then yesterday because we just don't have enough community coverage—yet. But we are moving there so fast. This one-size-fits-all, too-early, too reckless rush to "open" up is senseless.
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Look, we may be avoiding a fourth "surge" because of increasing pace of vaccinations, but *some* unvaccinated people will get infected if indoor restrictions are completely lifted and masks no longer worn indoors. The vaccine supply is about to go way way up. Just.. no.pic.twitter.com/CsSNDJ23Dz
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Folks who are fully vaccinated: guidance on how they are safer and what they can do with other vaccinated folk. Outdoors? Please, go do more outdoors. Indoor/public stuff? Be more strict until broader vaccination coverage which is really around the corner.https://twitter.com/deshpn/status/1366863126113570817 …
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Here it is! (Reportedly!)https://twitter.com/SteveKopack/status/1366895728694611973 …
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This will never end. We can have 3000 million more epidemiological studies but they’ll still be shaming people for the what are probably the safest possible activities in a pandemic due to a respiratory pathogen. ht
@jwitkerhttps://twitter.com/CNN/status/1371397016530599937 …
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After a full, difficult year, people find possibly the safest possible way to socialize: outdoors in a big park. Reporter: wait, I can see it.https://twitter.com/Travisdhanraj/status/1375893648827629574 …
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Guess I'll be updating this thread for the next decade. LA opening restaurants etc., so let's put a picture of a vast beach that looks just about the safest place. Worse, this is LA, can't even make up some story about travel to the beach causing the risk.https://twitter.com/jamesbont/status/1377400019062452225?s=20 …
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Belgian police breaking up young people hanging out at... a park. A big, vast park. We’re more than a year in. We know where transmission primarily occurs and how. (Young ones are being encouraged to hang out indoors, I guess, where they won’t risk being trampled by horses.)https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1378455984549425153 …
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I'm beginning to wonder if I'm being personally-trolled here, as an experiment. This is by CNN, bringing you the important news about the pandemic with visuals that highlight the acute problem. h/t
@PatrickFIanaganpic.twitter.com/zr6b7wnM3V
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For those wondering how incorrect guidelines still block better pandemic mitigations: Despite Dr. Wen's heroic attempt here to divert, the incorrect description (basically copied from guidelines) helps drive the beach panic. If that were true, yeah indoor/outdoor would be same.pic.twitter.com/NAp4dVtgIV
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This is why we must learn from the mistakes of past & current pandemics (I'm the child of an addict who essentially died from it—I don't have naive or simplistic thoughts about addiction).