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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Prof. Devi Sridhar  🌈‏Verified account @devisridhar 25 Feb 2021

      If it's raining outside but modelling tells you it's sunny, do you believe what you can see and the clear data? Triangulation of modelling, observational data, & common sense is vital. More complex doesn't mean more accurate.https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1567 …

      69 replies 391 retweets 1,583 likes
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    2. Prof. Devi Sridhar  🌈‏Verified account @devisridhar 25 Feb 2021

      If you have very few people testing positive, positivity is <0.5%, genetic sequencing shows that 1st strains were eliminated, what does this tell you about level of COVID? Or believe complex, untransparent mathematical models w/ predetermined assumptions?https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18931916.scotland-close-eliminating-coronavirus-travel-brought-new-strains/ …

      10 replies 42 retweets 220 likes
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    3. Prof. Devi Sridhar  🌈‏Verified account @devisridhar 25 Feb 2021

      Some modellers also saying last Jan 2020 that 80% of Chinese population would get COVID-19 and this would be uncontrollable. Guess what? China controlled it. So did Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Australia, NZ -> the list goes on. Public health measures can and do work.

      28 replies 140 retweets 585 likes
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    4. Prof. Devi Sridhar  🌈‏Verified account @devisridhar 25 Feb 2021

      The mistake modelling made was not to account for value of TIME. Buying time for science saved thousands of lives in countries that went for 'no COVID tolerance'. Now they will vaccinate their populations & escape this pandemic with few deaths & faster economic recovery.

      21 replies 151 retweets 636 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 26 Feb 2021
      Replying to @devisridhar

      Yes but. That's not totally fair to modeling. Not taking time into account in models is not a problem with modeling, it's a problem of *those* models that don't. Here's one specifically about value of time in interventions—concludes buying time is key. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.02209.pdf …

      6:17 AM - 26 Feb 2021
      • 8 Likes
      • Alan Jenkins Myrrh TallDavid Arend Bayer Dak (David A. Keldsen) HKDavid David Savard
      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
        1. arXiv abstract‏ @arxivabs 26 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @devisridhar

          Check out the abstract!https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.02209 

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 26 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @devisridhar

          I wrote an article earlier in the pandemic urging people to interpret models with a time and action-focused lens, rather than predictions: i.e. what we can do now to chose our branch. Don't disagree we did treat them as predictions, and many weren't great. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ …pic.twitter.com/GILq0gSGV3

          0 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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