If it's raining outside but modelling tells you it's sunny, do you believe what you can see and the clear data? Triangulation of modelling, observational data, & common sense is vital. More complex doesn't mean more accurate.https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1567 …
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I wrote an article earlier in the pandemic urging people to interpret models with a time and action-focused lens, rather than predictions: i.e. what we can do now to chose our branch. Don't disagree we did treat them as predictions, and many weren't great. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ …pic.twitter.com/GILq0gSGV3
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