That's not saying everything just ends then. Pandemics don't end with a bang—they can whimper on even long after herd immunity, too, including big local outbreaks—and the world is certainly not just the United States. Still. Those are game-changing numbers and a pace for the US.
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Yes, and. One real problem: We will soon transition into a *different* set of problems. Given how slow we were to transition into pandemic thinking, it's possible we'll be too slow to start addressing them—stuck arguing over things no longer as relevant. https://twitter.com/esqincoming/status/1365153422274658305 …
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There are many categories of problems where informed and thoughtful anticipatory action is crucial, and we've been bad at that. Just check what many people (media/social media/authorities) were saying in February of 2020. The same thing can play out for the end phase as well.
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Pfizer expects to *double* it's weekly US production and deliver 120 million doses just in the next 6 weeks. We have 600 million mRNA doses scheduled by end of July. J&J VRBPAC meeting today. Things can go wrong, but it's time to talk about and act on *new* challenges we'll face.
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I mean, alternatively we can repeat February of 2020?
Wait till problems do hit us with their full-force, when they are much harder to address as opposed to timely, early action and planning? Total fingers crossed we won't of course, but these things happen if we act, not wait.Show this thread -
The point here is that, yes, things will get much better for many—and sooner than we seem to have internalized—but there will also be very real but different challenges, too, and will play out under a very different political and epidemiological climate.https://twitter.com/iansmcleod/status/1365328779388743681 …
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Long COVID is really scary. People are debilitated for months, possibly years. But yeah people are going to go out as if they're invulnerable, and everyone will ignore the sick. Like always.
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The sharp drop in nursing home deaths (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/25/us/nursing-home-covid-vaccine.html …) is reason for tremendous hope—*if* we can get enough people vaccinated, world-wide.
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I looked at this chart, (mentally) pulled apart the two data lines and thought, outside nursing homes it looks like things are still going pretty bad
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If 50% of 65+ folks have at least one shot—and most of it last month? (50 million had at least one shot. It's mostly elderly plus health-care workers. US has about 50 million people over 65). Barring something really unexpected, things should look very different in one month.