On the one hand, yes yes of course, let’s vaccinate as fast as possible globally. Best protection. OTOH there isn’t an endless fitness landscape here. Look at what happened in SA. We had one that did seem to have immune escape: it went way up and down even without any vaccines.
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Replying to @zeynep @chrislhayes
I am not at all against timely panic if warranted! Not at all. But come on, let’s see the preprint before getting this scared. So far, no variant has knocked out all the vaccines.* (We have uncertainty over AZ and one variant—but it’s uncertainty. Tiny sample, CI crossing zero).
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Replying to @zeynep @chrislhayes
Also, we have ludicrously good data for infection+one shot mRNA. Neutralizes SARS1, never mind B.1.351. The worst case is looking likely to be you get a shot, you get a cold, and then you basically have anti-covid immune superpowers.
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The question in my mind is what happens if it is in the reverse order: mRNA full course, then mild or asymp infection of whatever variant escapes enough that you have an infection at all. Hopefully that also produces a similar response.
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Replying to @RidleyDM @Brian_Orak and
Question along those lines -- w/r/t the latest story, i.e. approval of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, is the AP report that it's "72% effective against moderate to severe COVID-19" an accurate depiction? It makes it sound that there's still a 28% chance that you could be....
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vaccinated and STILL become infected and suffer serious illness. Somehow I don't think that that was really the result of the Johnson & Johnson trials. Or I am mistaken?
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Replying to @Parisire @Brian_Orak and
All of these efficacy numbers are relative risks. So 72% effective means that for every 100 people in the placebo arm who got moderate/severe illness, 28 people in the vaccine arm did.
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So yes, with the J&J vaccine, you can still get infected and have "moderate/severe" illness, although you're about 1/4 as likely to as without it. Part of what's happening, though, is that you're much less likely than 28% as likely to get hospitalized or die.
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Replying to @RidleyDM @Brian_Orak and
I've just rechecked the story on http://Statnews.com and confirmed what I'd thought that I remembered seeing before, i.e. zero hospitalizations or fatalities in the vaccine arm of the trial of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Ergo, imho the AP story is misleading.
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Do you have a link to the AP story?
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