REMEMBER THE FLORIDA GRIM REAPER BEACH JERK? The lawyer dressed up as grim reaper, approaching complete strangers in Florida beaches and holding lengthy, scolding conversations with them posted on social media for ridicule and many RTs? Probably the only risk they faced was him.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted virginiahume
Cognitive biases, moral panics, authoritarian impulses, victim-blaming, groupthink, traditional & social media distortions, ignoring everything we know about human behavior & sometimes even viruses, philosophical frequentism, terrible risk-assessment...https://twitter.com/virginiahume/status/1363507633840349185 …
zeynep tufekci added,
9 replies 59 retweets 375 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Tommy Unger
I'd start the missteps on January 1, 2020 to be honest. Downplaying an exponential risk, being unable to judge what we were seeing before & after Wuhan lockdown, ignoring/ridiculing Asian expertise (remember masks are superstition and/or harmful pieces?)https://twitter.com/tommyunger/status/1363519068444053513 …
zeynep tufekci added,
4 replies 26 retweets 225 likesShow this thread -
Again, you *could* find the info on social media if you manage to find & follow the right experts but how are people supposed to distinguish the "right" experts from others with excellent credentials, education & positions.. who are, ahem, not so right? Yeah, unsolvable at scale.
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To the people telling me about the Sturgis rally. Forget the trad/social media moral panic—and the speculative reporting & headlines. We have actual papers. The event had a huge indoor component & what spread we do know happened in restaurants/workplaces. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e1.htm#T1_down …pic.twitter.com/cD8jDxLZpM
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Mark Yellin
I don't know. It's not impossible but to me, it looks less likely than it did in early January—more data. Cases down, vaccinations up, seasonality in our favor. I support sensible precautions (go outdoors! wear masks indoors!) & vaccinating as fast we can.https://twitter.com/myellin2/status/1363520782987649026 …
zeynep tufekci added,
6 replies 9 retweets 183 likesShow this thread -
Predictions beyond a month or so are hard (too many variables interacting/too many unknowns) but here's what we do know. Things ARE absolutely looking up. But we're not out of the woods yet. But there are many things we *can* do more safely now, and even more after vaccination.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
*called. Only once! Sorry typing on the phone only goes so far.

https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1363490391287345160 …zeynep tufekci added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepI’m not saying it was a wise thing to rush out to celebrate. But how many events like this have we had? Outdoors but widely condemned, confidently called called superspreader. But wasn’t, barely reported. (UNC tests all students on campus twice a week and off campus once a week). https://twitter.com/JoedyMcCreary/status/1362881044551237639 …Show this thread3 replies 1 retweet 34 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Roel Schroeven
Request: I'm not aware of any outdoor-only superspreader event. The rare confirmed outdoor transmission cases usually involve lengthy and high-exertion (huffing & puffing) contact. If know of any, please send them. Been tracking down reports for a year.https://twitter.com/roelschroeven/status/1364239981519265793 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Roel Schroeven @roelschroevenReplying to @zeynepThank you for your clarifications, and for your effort. I heard some professor on the radio talk about 1/10 transmissions outdoor, which is what concerned me a bit, but it seems quite overblown indeed. The review paper talks about <1/10, which is not the same thing.19 replies 35 retweets 174 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @zeynep
Cheltenham Festival 2020? Tightly packed racing event, widely considered in UK to have been super-spreading (in March, at exactly the wrong time). However, I'd guess it also featured lots of packing into restaurants and, especially, bars.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Lots of suspected events with an indoor component. However, even after a year, there is not a single outdoor-only superspreader event that I've been able to track down and confirm, and, in truth, also fairly few confirmed transmission events (though harder to track so data bias).
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Replying to @zeynep
Indeed. But you might want to look that one up because there's been a lot of anger about it.
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