I'd start the missteps on January 1, 2020 to be honest. Downplaying an exponential risk, being unable to judge what we were seeing before & after Wuhan lockdown, ignoring/ridiculing Asian expertise (remember masks are superstition and/or harmful pieces?)https://twitter.com/tommyunger/status/1363519068444053513 …
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Again, you *could* find the info on social media if you manage to find & follow the right experts but how are people supposed to distinguish the "right" experts from others with excellent credentials, education & positions.. who are, ahem, not so right? Yeah, unsolvable at scale.
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To the people telling me about the Sturgis rally. Forget the trad/social media moral panic—and the speculative reporting & headlines. We have actual papers. The event had a huge indoor component & what spread we do know happened in restaurants/workplaces. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e1.htm#T1_down …pic.twitter.com/cD8jDxLZpM
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Mark Yellin
I don't know. It's not impossible but to me, it looks less likely than it did in early January—more data. Cases down, vaccinations up, seasonality in our favor. I support sensible precautions (go outdoors! wear masks indoors!) & vaccinating as fast we can.https://twitter.com/myellin2/status/1363520782987649026 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Predictions beyond a month or so are hard (too many variables interacting/too many unknowns) but here's what we do know. Things ARE absolutely looking up. But we're not out of the woods yet. But there are many things we *can* do more safely now, and even more after vaccination.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
*called. Only once! Sorry typing on the phone only goes so far.

https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1363490391287345160 …zeynep tufekci added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepI’m not saying it was a wise thing to rush out to celebrate. But how many events like this have we had? Outdoors but widely condemned, confidently called called superspreader. But wasn’t, barely reported. (UNC tests all students on campus twice a week and off campus once a week). https://twitter.com/JoedyMcCreary/status/1362881044551237639 …Show this thread3 replies 1 retweet 34 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Roel Schroeven
Request: I'm not aware of any outdoor-only superspreader event. The rare confirmed outdoor transmission cases usually involve lengthy and high-exertion (huffing & puffing) contact. If know of any, please send them. Been tracking down reports for a year.https://twitter.com/roelschroeven/status/1364239981519265793 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Roel Schroeven @roelschroevenReplying to @zeynepThank you for your clarifications, and for your effort. I heard some professor on the radio talk about 1/10 transmissions outdoor, which is what concerned me a bit, but it seems quite overblown indeed. The review paper talks about <1/10, which is not the same thing.19 replies 35 retweets 174 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @zeynep @NastyOldWomyn
How about Amy Comey Barrett’s party on the WH lawn? And Trump rallies outside? Yes there are outside superspreader events.
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So, the bar is set. Real, actual contact tracing of superspreader events. In these cases, there are many indoor opportunities (e.g., Barrett's reception). When real contact tracing occurred, there are FEW outdoor transmissions AT ALL and no superspreader events. 1/
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COVID-19 is high dispersion and depends on superspreading events to have R>1. Without such events, it will not have community transmission. This is the reason the lack of attention to ventilation and indoor air quality is so tragic. 2/2
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Exactly, thank you. I think we needed three things acknowledged (like Japan did) early on in order to have the right mitigations in place in time: presymptomatic transmission, key role of aerosol spread and overdispersion (all three related to some degree). All three resisted.
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