Cognitive biases, moral panics, authoritarian impulses, victim-blaming, groupthink, traditional & social media distortions, ignoring everything we know about human behavior & sometimes even viruses, philosophical frequentism, terrible risk-assessment...https://twitter.com/virginiahume/status/1363507633840349185 …
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Tommy Unger
I'd start the missteps on January 1, 2020 to be honest. Downplaying an exponential risk, being unable to judge what we were seeing before & after Wuhan lockdown, ignoring/ridiculing Asian expertise (remember masks are superstition and/or harmful pieces?)https://twitter.com/tommyunger/status/1363519068444053513 …
zeynep tufekci added,
4 replies 26 retweets 225 likesShow this thread -
Again, you *could* find the info on social media if you manage to find & follow the right experts but how are people supposed to distinguish the "right" experts from others with excellent credentials, education & positions.. who are, ahem, not so right? Yeah, unsolvable at scale.
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To the people telling me about the Sturgis rally. Forget the trad/social media moral panic—and the speculative reporting & headlines. We have actual papers. The event had a huge indoor component & what spread we do know happened in restaurants/workplaces. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e1.htm#T1_down …pic.twitter.com/cD8jDxLZpM
6 replies 48 retweets 287 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Mark Yellin
I don't know. It's not impossible but to me, it looks less likely than it did in early January—more data. Cases down, vaccinations up, seasonality in our favor. I support sensible precautions (go outdoors! wear masks indoors!) & vaccinating as fast we can.https://twitter.com/myellin2/status/1363520782987649026 …
zeynep tufekci added,
6 replies 9 retweets 183 likesShow this thread -
Predictions beyond a month or so are hard (too many variables interacting/too many unknowns) but here's what we do know. Things ARE absolutely looking up. But we're not out of the woods yet. But there are many things we *can* do more safely now, and even more after vaccination.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
*called. Only once! Sorry typing on the phone only goes so far.

https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1363490391287345160 …zeynep tufekci added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepI’m not saying it was a wise thing to rush out to celebrate. But how many events like this have we had? Outdoors but widely condemned, confidently called called superspreader. But wasn’t, barely reported. (UNC tests all students on campus twice a week and off campus once a week). https://twitter.com/JoedyMcCreary/status/1362881044551237639 …Show this thread3 replies 1 retweet 34 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Roel Schroeven
Request: I'm not aware of any outdoor-only superspreader event. The rare confirmed outdoor transmission cases usually involve lengthy and high-exertion (huffing & puffing) contact. If know of any, please send them. Been tracking down reports for a year.https://twitter.com/roelschroeven/status/1364239981519265793 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Roel Schroeven @roelschroevenReplying to @zeynepThank you for your clarifications, and for your effort. I heard some professor on the radio talk about 1/10 transmissions outdoor, which is what concerned me a bit, but it seems quite overblown indeed. The review paper talks about <1/10, which is not the same thing.19 replies 35 retweets 174 likesShow this thread -
Outdoor transmission is not impossible, though seems to be really high bar, so far. It may even happen because something *changes* that we should be aware of. At some point, though absence of evidence *is* evidence exactly because we are looking hard. So please send counters!
10 replies 13 retweets 143 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @zeynep
Need to stipulate that I largely agree with you on this, but I've been thinking hard about it & can't figure out why all these outdoor events turn out fine but the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally looks to have been a huge spread event. Maybe I don't understand motorcycle rallies?
3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
Huge indoor component. There's an actual CDC report with genomic sequencing. Infections happened at restaurants/workplaces.
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Replying to @zeynep
OK good, the answer was indeed that I don't understand motorcycle rallies. :) I'll try and google that report.
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Replying to @JohnSkylar @zeynep
A big component of Sturgis in particular is gathering at indoor bars.
0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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