Since day one, @zeynep has been right about COVID. It’s easy to say big outdoor gatherings (rallies, protests, concerts) are superspreader events. (I’m guilty too.) But the data just don’t support that. Instead, it’s the everyday indoor stuff we don’t see that’s killing people.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1363491410075389962 …
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The Tulane pre-print about Mardi Gras as a superspreader event is good evidence that large outdoor events can accelerate infections. It doesn’t have to be a binary: indoor spread is dominant, but a mass outdoor event can be a huge vector. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.05.21251235v1.full.pdf …
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* Spread at large outdoors events may be from indoor interactions (hotels, restrooms, restaurants, shopping, bars). It’s helpful to remember that all outdoor events have indoor components.
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Replying to @mariachong @zeynep
Agreed. It’ll be interesting to compare localized events like BLM that don’t have the travel and dining component and result in so few cases, versus the events that are outdoors complemented by time in bars, restaurants, hotels, cabs, etc.
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Replying to @sacca @mariachong
I did not see any convincing data of a spike from BLM protests—should have been observable given the scale. Of course, it was possible especially if it spilled indoors—but they seemed to be outdoors/masked. The widely-condemned Lake of the Ozarks party also didn't cause a spike.
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After a year of effort, I know of very, very few documented cases of purely outdoor transmission—and those took work: lengthy, close contact, huffing and puffing from a close distance—let alone superspreading. Good to be reasonably cautious, but not high on my risk calculations.
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I’m 100% in agreement about parks (since last March). People need sunlight and physical activity. Normal outdoor activity is so low risk. (Sitting at an outdoor cafe for two hours talking is a different matter.)
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Replying to @mariachong @zeynep
Genuine question: Have there been any/stat significant cases from outdoor cafes/dining? My instinct is that air dispersal wouldn’t allow for enough load. But curious.
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Replying to @sacca @mariachong
I'd ask
@mugecevik (she's excellent for tracking such things). I'm not aware of a confirmed case but I think it's certainly possible for unmasked, lengthy talking from a close distance to transmit. Superspreading? I think that's a lot less likely.3 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
I think, eventually, we'll learn "droplets"—emissions that travel with gravity—were minor threat from people who weren't coughing/sneezing but the floaty pieces (aerosols) were responsible for even most of the close-contact spread. Otherwise, you'd see a lot more outdoor spread.
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With that mental model, downside: close contact is always an issue especially if unmasked talking/shouting—though seems some people can generate a lot of these floaty pieces just by breathing. Upside: anything that dilutes concentration (air/wind) or deactivates (sun) is helpful.
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The smoker model is helpful. If we sit outside in a sheltered spot and my friend was smoking, would I smell his smoke for two continuous hours? If yes—it’s too close/not enough airflow. (If you’ve ever visited France back in the day, this makes intuitive sense
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End of conversation
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